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Essential Report

Mar 9, 2010

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 43 (up 1)/ 40 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a one point gain to Labor since last week. The Greens and the broad “Others” are steady on 9 a piece. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1889, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

Additional questions this week covered which level of government the public believes should be responsible for an array of issues, perceptions of gender wage differentials in the workplace, why people vote the way they do at both State and Fed elections, as well as public opinion on Rudd’s national curriculum.

These additional questions ran off a sample of 1129, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Do you think the following services should be mainly the responsibility of the Federal Government or State Governments?

fedstate1

On the cross-tabs we have:

People in Western Australia (50%) and Victoria (43%) wee more likely to think that health should be the responsibility of both State and Federal Governments.

35% of those surveyed think that water supply should be the responsibility of the State Governments and 25% think it should be the
responsibility of the Federal Government.

People in South Australia (42%) were more likely to think that water supply should be the responsibility of the Federal Government.

If we ever wonder why Federal governments have centralist tendencies, we should probably look in the mirror occasionally. I suppose, as a consolation,  we think States should do water 😀

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In your workplace, are there more men or more women in the lower paid positions?
In your workplace, are there more men or more women in the higher paid positions?

genderpay1

On the cross-tabs we have:

49% of women indicated that there are more women in lower paid positions in their workplace.

44% of those in part-time work indicated that there are more women than men in lower paid positions in their workplace.

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Did you know that the average national weekly ordinary-hours earnings across all industries for men is more than 20% higher than for women?

GENDERPAY2

On the cross-tabs, we have:

Women were more likely to know that average earnings for men is more than 20% higher than for women (55%), while men were more likely to not know (52%).

People aged 55 years and over were more likely to know (74%), while those aged 18 – 24 were more likely to not know earnings are higher for men than women (63%).

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The Rudd Government proposes to introduce a national curriculum from next year where every student from prep to year 10 will learn from the same curriculum in English, maths, history and science. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s proposal for a national curriculum?

natcurric1

On the cross-tabs we have:

Labor voters were slightly more likely than Coalition and Green voters to approve (90% Labor v 86% Coalition, 85% Green).

Approval was high amongst all demographic groups.

While this result looks extraordinarily high at first glance, we are dealing with a population that has – as other questions in the poll suggest – massive centralist government tendencies. Keeping that in mind, this result probably isn’t that surprising. If the Coalition starts campaigning against it, natural partisan interest will come to the fore where some Coalition voters change their view because that’s what their party says they should do – so that would reduce the size of majority a bit. But these politically virginal results, relatively untainted by partisan argy bargy as tey are, make for a rather interesting result none the less.

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When you vote in Federal or State elections, which of the following best describes how you decide who to vote for?

fedstate2

On the cross-tabs we have:

48% of Coalition voters and 42% of Labor voters indicated that it is the overall policies of the parties that determine how they vote in a Federal or State election.

35% of Labor voters and 31% of Coalition voters indicated that having a general preference for a party is the primary reason that best describes how they vote in a Federal or State election.

People aged 65 years and over were more likely to indicate it is party policy that primarily determine how they vote in a Federal or State election (57%), while those aged 35 – 44 were more likely were more likely to indicate it is a general preference for a party that determines how they will vote (32%).

The top two responses can probably be thrown in the same bag – giving us 69% that vote on the vibe. The 2% that don’t make a choice but just vote for anyone are, I suppose, at least honest (shakes head).

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12 comments

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12 thoughts on “Essential Report – National Curriculum Edition

  1. sbr

    Once again, people getting annoyed at polling because it has the temerity to measure perceptions they don’t agree with; and ask the views of people who aren’t necessarily very well informed.

    Was it MPM who was doing this before (about polling on asylum seekers)?

  2. Andrew Norton » Blog Archive » Are overlapping state and federal responsibilities a good thing?

    […] Essential Research poll published today on Pollytics blog is one of the most interesting I have seen on […]

  3. Grog

    [I note also with no degree of irony that the Aboroigninal ‘Dreaming’ component of the ‘Science’ course was hastily removed after widespread public outcry.]

    Unfortunately the National Curriculum came too late to improve your education. The curriculum (which you would know if you had read it) hasn’t changed a dot since it was released. It’s acutally a draft curriculum and has been released to seek comment from people. So actually to change it at this point would defeat the purpose of seeking comment.

    But, hey – feel free just to make shit up if it helps you to get closer to making a point.

  4. zoomster

    Poss

    Isn’t “I make my mind up according to the policies’ simply the ‘correct’ answer to the question and therefore the one people are most likely to give, rather than what happens in reality?

    A bit like the Americans and churchgoing ones, where the majority of Americans say they attend church regularly, but this is not borne out by church attendance figures.

  5. zoomster

    Most Peculiar mama

    the dreamtime reference wasn’t removed; it was never in there.

    I read the Nat Curriculum very soon after it came out.

  6. Most Peculiar Mama

    What does that statistic prove?

    It provides no context as to the make-up of the ‘average’ sample and the participation rates – which are directly relevant, particularly when woman are over-represented in typically lower paid jobs like hairdressing and retail against a dominant male profile in high paid jobs like mining, engineering and the medical profession.

    Of course the average is going to be skewed in favour of men.

    Again, so what?

  7. Most Peculiar Mama

    “…If you want to know what people think about income disparities, take a poll….”

    So let’s take a poll on something most people have less than no clue about and publish the data as a definitive?

    “…Did you know that the average national weekly ordinary-hours earnings across all industries for men is more than 20% higher than for
    women?…”

    And so what anyway. What does that sta

  8. Possum Comitatus

    MPM, a few things.

    [How many people know with any degree of accuracy what their colleagues earn?]

    Polls measure perception. If you want to know about the reality of national gender disparities on income, the ABS would be the place to go.If you want to know what people think about income disparities, take a poll.

    [Having 85% approval for a national curriculum is not the same as having 85% approval over what that curriculum is. This poll was clearly taken before it was released.]

    This poll was taken over the period of Tuesday the 2nd to Sunday the 7th of March. Labor’s national curriculum was launched last Monday – the 1st of March. It received its major TV coverage on the Monday night, and major press coverage on Tuesday.

    [Crap push-polling. Where does that statistic come from?]

    That isnt push-polling. The bottom of the post over here explains what push polling actually is:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/08/26/essential-report-redux-and-a-bit-on-push-polling/

    It’s a common misconception.

    As for where that statistic comes from? THe ABS – Average Weekly Earnings, Australia, Nov 2009

    http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6302.0Nov%202009?OpenDocument

    [Does it take into account bigger workforce participation by men?]

    No, because that would be pretty silly. This is the average weekly, full time, ordinary time, earnings of workers – not the average weekly earnings of all people both employed, not employed, part time, casual and those not in the labour market.

    What would be the point of measuring that?

  9. Possum Comitatus

    Laocoon, that’s an interesting point.

    These days, everything that is annouced by the gov has a day or two of generic opposition snarking. Yet that only seems to penetrate into the polling in terms of making the approve/disapprove split on the issue resemble the voting intention, if the Opposition launches a full blown negative campaign on it like they did with the ETS, the insulation program etc.

    With things like health funding and the national curriculum though, the opposition attack hasn’t really been sustained, nor particularly intense. Opposition to Rudd health didn’t even last a week before Abbott changed topic, the national curriculum attack didn’t even last 2 days.

    Without the sustained attack, it just seems to blow over most people, including Coalition voters.

  10. Most Peculiar Mama

    This report is a crock.

    Three reasons:
    1. How many people know with any degree of accuracy what their colleagues earn?
    2. Having 85% approval for a national curriculum is not the same as having 85% approval over what that curriculum is. This poll was clearly taken before it was released.

    Let’s do the poll again now that the curriculum has been put into the public domain.

    I note also with no degree of irony that the Aboroigninal ‘Dreaming’ component of the ‘Science’ course was hastily removed after widespread public outcry.

    3. “…Did you know that the average national weekly ordinary-hours earnings across all industries for men is more than 20% higher than for women?…”

    Crap push-polling. Where does that statistic come from?

    Does it take into account bigger workforce participation by men?

    No-one would take report seriously.

  11. Rockstar Philosopher

    Laocoon: I would expect that that’s where the partisan argy bargy will come in; the actual content. John Howard would have loved to have gotten his greasy paws on the History curriculum.

    Anyway, with History at least, it’s the skills that count; teach the skills and people will be able to understand the past just through being exposed to the ideas of society. The only reason to mandate knowledge content is for indoctrination and propaganda purposes.

  12. Laocoon

    Possum
    [If the Coalition starts campaigning against it, natural partisan interest will come to the fore where some Coalition voters change their view because that’s what their party says they should do – so that would reduce the size of majority a bit.]
    Well, maybe it has not been a “sustained campaign”, but Liberals/Pyne came out pretty strongly on the balck arm band, x references to aborgines none for Magna Carta…would have thought the partisan negativity would have got through to most people