This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 41 (Coalition down 2)/ 40 (ALP up 2), washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor – a 2 point gain to the ALP over the last week. The Greens are steady on 10, while the broad “Others” are steady on 9. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1911, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark.
Additional questions this week were an interesting duo measuring perceptions of how political parties are traveling and why that might be so, leader trustworthiness and the Resource Super Profits Tax. These additional questions came from a sample of 1044, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3% mark.
Would you say that your view of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Government has become more or less favourable in recent weeks?
On the cross-tabs, we have:
22% of Labor voters said they had become more favourable and 31% less favourable. Coalition voters split 4% more favourable/81% less favourable and Greens voters 23% more favourable/58% less favourable.
47% of those aged under 35 were less favourable compared to 66% of those aged 45+.
The interesting aspect of this question is that it is as much about perceptions of media reporting as it is of any underlying political reality – especially when we look at the follow up question:
If a little less or much less favourable –
And which of the following would you say has been the main reason for your view of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Government becoming less favourable in recent weeks?
Essential tells us on the cross-tabs:
Among Labor voters the main reasons were not honouring election commitments (30%) and problems with the insulation and school building programs (14%).
For Coalition voters the main reasons were not honouring election commitments (27%), the 40% tax on mining companies (18%) and too much spending (17%).
For Greens voters the main reasons were postponing the introduction of the ETS (34%) and problems with the insulation and school building programs (16%).
Moving on to the same questions for Tony Abbott:
Would you say that your view of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has become more or less favourable in recent weeks?
55% of Coalition voters said they had become more favourable and 13% less favourable. Labor voters split 8% more favourable/52% less favourable and Greens voters 15% more favourable/61% less favourable.
31% of men had become more favourable compared to 22% of women.
Those on higher incomes had the most favourable view – respondents with incomes over $1,600 pw were 34% more favourable/32% less favourable.
On the followup, we get a small sub sample, so treat these as indicative only:
If a little more or much more favourable –
And which of the following would you say has been the main reason for your view of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party becoming more favourable in recent weeks?
On the cross-tabs we get:
For Coalition voters the main reasons were that Tony Abbott is more in touch with ordinary Australians (24%) and the Liberals would cut Government spending (24%).
27% of those on higher incomes (over $1,000 pw) said Tony Abbott is more in touch with ordinary Australians compared to 12% of those on lower incomes (under $1,000 pw).
Do you think the Opposition leader Tony Abbott is more or less trustworthy than the average Australian political leader?
And do you think the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is more or less trustworthy than the average Australian political leader?
47% of Coalition voters think Tony Abbott is more trustworthy and 56% of Labor voters think he is less trustworthy.
For Kevin Rudd 40% of Labor voters think he is more trustworthy and 69% of Coalition voters think he is less trustworthy.
Greens voters tend to think Tony Abbott is less trustworthy (55%) and are split on Kevin Rudd (24% more/25% less).
The Government has proposed a resources super profits tax‐ which is a 40% tax on the large profits of mining companies ‐ in order to fund a reduction in company tax, assistance for small business and an increase in superannuation. Do you support or oppose this tax?
Essential tells us on the cross-tabs:
Labor voters support the tax 66%/15% and Coalition voters oppose the tax 66%/23%. 66% of Greens voters support the tax and 19% oppose.
48% of higher income earners ($1,600+ pw) support the tax and 36% oppose.
A different question about the RSPT was asked 2 weeks ago. It showed that 52% approved of “higher taxes on the profits of large mining companies” and 34% disapproved.
I somehow managed to accidentally turn the comments on this post off. Sorry about that.