Jun 7, 2010

Nielsen -Offshore processing and the RSPT

Nielsen’s additional questions this month focused on asylum seekers and the RSPT. Looking at RSPT first, Nielsen asked: The government has announced it will introduce a r

Possum Comitatus — Editor of Pollytics

Possum Comitatus

Editor of Pollytics

Nielsen’s additional questions this month focused on asylum seekers and the RSPT. Looking at RSPT first, Nielsen asked:

The government has announced it will introduce a resource super profits tax. Do you support or oppose a tax on the ‘super profits’ of mining companies? Is that strongly support / support / oppose / strongly oppose?

The headline results and party voting cross-tabs come in like this:


The headline results are in the same ballpark as the most recent Morgan phone poll on this (May 27th – 42 Support, 48 Oppose, 10 Other) but slightly ahead of last week’s Newspoll (36 Support, 41 Oppose, 23 Other).  The results show fairly significant opposition to the policy not only among all voters (obviously), but with 1 in 4 Labor voters being opposed as well.
When we break these down into age cohorts, we see that the age group most opposed to the policy is the working age 25-39 group – presumably those that see themselves most negatively affected by consequences of the RSPT, at least the consequences as imagined by Big Dirt.


More interesting is the male/female and capital/non capital city splits:


The Support/Opposition split on the policy appears to be geographically neutral, with both capital and non capital city denizens sharing the same approximate levels of support and opposition to the RSPT. The big difference comes on the gender side of things, with Opposition to the policy being roughly equal for men and women, but support for the policy shows women trailing 7 points behind men, with over twice the number of women being in the “Don’t Know” category as well.
That gender gap was a bit of a surprise – anyone have any thoughts?
Moving along to asylum seekers – Nielsen firstly asked:

Which of the parties do you think has the best policy on asylum seekers?

This produced headline results and gender and age cross-tabs:


The cross-tabs were all pretty consistent across the board except for people that believe the Coalition has the best policy. Here we see a big 11 point gender gap open up between males and females (and a 13 point gender gap on Dont Know), and a big jump from under 40’s to over 40’s. The older you are, the more you likely you are to believe that the Coalition has the best asylum seeker policy by a substantial margin, and the more likely you are to actually have an opinion on the matter as well.

Nielsen asked a further question:

The Coalition has announced that it would reintroduce the Howard Government’s policy of processing asylum seekers in countries outside Australia. Do you support or oppose this policy? Is
that strongly support or support / strongly oppose or oppose?


62% of Australians support sending people to other countries to be processed.

An interesting juxtaposition of course, would be to ask this 62% whether they would support, say, The United States sending their asylum seekers here to Australia to be processed and paying us for the privilege? One could readily imagine what the answer would be – as a country we wear our parochial hypocrisy like a comfy pair of ugg boots.

On other matters – as you can see, the graphics have changed a little. I’ve moved to creating them on a 1920×1080 screen – so let me know if they aren’t working out for you at whatever resolution it is that you’re viewing the page with.


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6 thoughts on “Nielsen -Offshore processing and the RSPT

  1. Labor and the retreat of Greens preferences – Pollytics

    […] saw some of this at play with yesterday’s Nielsen poll results on reintroducing the Pacific Solution – over a third of Greens voters support offshore processing and  don’t agree with the position […]

  2. Essential Report – our ignorance on asylum seeker numbers – Pollytics

    […] Politics, elections and piffle plinking Skip to content « Nielsen -Offshore processing and the RSPT […]

  3. Sam Bauers

    Bogdanovist, your hypothesis assumes that this is the primary voting issue for every voter. I suggest that you assume that it isn’t, and that there are Greens voters who put social justice issues behind their environmental concerns.

    I have met voters who have indicated to me that one stance or another stops them from voting Green. Many people have deep concerns for the environment but not so deep that it overrides their opposition to abortion (for example) or in this case asylum seekers.

    I have not met them, but there must be others who order similar concerns in the opposite way, bite the bullet and vote Green for some other reason even though they don’t agree with the social justice policies.

    I know that doesn’t fit into the nice neat binary model (and unsupported assertions about “parked votes”), but it’s probably a lot closer to reality. The same reality that exists for all parties that publish a broad set of policies.

  4. Bogdanovist

    Greens supporters should be concerned about those 36% (!!) of Greens voters who support off shore processing. My best guess would be that many or most of these folks are those who have recently parked their votes with the Greens, causing their impressive rise in the polls of late. They may be claiming to intend to vote Green, but they clearly aren’t too cluely about fundamental parts of Green party core philosophy.

    With both major parties in a race to the bottom in this issue, the Greens are likely to make much of their much different stance in the lead up to the election. Will this 36% change their mind when confronted with this?

  5. kymbos

    Those are the kind of numbers that depressed me throughout the lifetime of the previous Government. 62% – WTF!

  6. Nielsen gives Abbott best poll ever. – Pollytics

    […] Politics, elections and piffle plinking Skip to content « RSPT polling and low hanging fruit Nielsen -Offshore processing and the RSPT » […]

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