This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 41 (steady)/ 39 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – unchanged since last week. The Greens are steady on 13, while the broad “Others” are down 1 to 5. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1875, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark. On the standard Preferred PM question, the results came in with Gillard up 4 to 53, Abbott down 3 to 26 and the “Don’t knows” down 1 to 21.

On the cross-tabs of the preferred PM question, Essential Report tells us:

Julia Gillard is preferred 91% to 2% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 70% to 8% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 71% to 4%.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 47%/32% and women 53%/23%.

Additional questions this week looked at approval ratings and strength of the leaders,  which issues Australians rank as important when deciding how they would vote, which party we “trust” to most handle a variety of issues and a few jobbies on Australian values.

On with the show!

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister/Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader ?

First up, the results for PM approval and strength come in as:


pmappstrengthjuly19 pmdisappstrengthjuly19

On the cross-tabs, Essential tells us:

There were substantial differences by gender ‐ men 50% approve/36% disapprove and women 54% approve/25% disapprove.

For Tony Abbot, the charts look like:


opappstrengthjuly19 opdisappstrengthjuly19

On the cross tabs we get:

There were some differences by gender ‐ men 45% approve/43% disapprove and women 35% approve/46% disapprove.

We see the same gender gaps opening up that we’ve seen with other pollsters. Also worth showing is the net approval tracking:



Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

(click to expand)


This was followed by the sister question:

And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?


It’s worth having a squiz at those last two charts together to a better feel for the issues.


The Prime Minister Julia Gillard recently said that hard work and education, regarding everyone as equal, showing respect and plain speaking are Australian values. Do you agree or disagree that this is a good definition of Australian values?

ozvaluesjuly19The cross-tabs say:

79% of respondents agreed with Julia Gillard’s description of Australian values – 91% of Labor voters agreed, 76% of Liberal/National voters and 79% of Greens voters.


Do you agree or disagree that this definition of Australian values describes the political leaders Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Bob Brown?


They are nasty figures for Tone there compared to Gillard – and Bob Brown doesn’t come off particularly well either, though he isn’t exactly casting his fishing line into the pond of middle Australia.

On the cross-tabs, Essential tells us:

Among their own voters – 90% of Labor voters agreed they describe Julia Gillard, 73% of Liberal/National voters agreed they describe Tony Abbott and 72% of Greens voters agreed they describe Bob Brown.

By gender – 62% of men and 68% of women agree they describe Julia Gillard and 43% of men and 34% of women agree they describe Tony Abbott.

If one was a little cynical, one might think that Gillard is trying to play the values card with a stacked deck in the campaign because of what turned up in focus groups, particularly regarding Abbott. But we’re not really the cynical kind round here, are we 😛

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