There’s three polls to report on today, the “bombshell” Galaxy poll run on the Nine News last night (bit of a fizzer), today’s Newspoll (via The Oz – tables here) and an Essential Report we’ll have this afternoon.

The big shock is Newspoll, coming in with the primaries running 42 (steady), 38 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a two point gain to the Labor party since the last Newspoll on the 27th June. The Greens are up 2 to 12 while the broad Others are steady on 8. This comes from a sample of 1140, giving us a margin of error that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Before anyone gets too excited, while this result is consistent with the medium term trend increase that the ALP has been experiencing in their vote for about 8 weeks or so now (as you can see by the Pollytrend charts in the sidebar on the right), it is probably slightly overcooked for Labor by a point or two.

The compositional movements within the primary votes were also a little unusual with the Coalition losing 2 points and the Greens gaining them. There’s sampling error swings and roundabouts here, so neither movement is statistically significant (although the Greens primary change nearly is – remembering that MoE is not only dependent on sample size, but also inversely dependent on the size of the estimated proportion being measured).

It would be highly unusual to see a straight Coalition-to-Greens shift, so if these changes are actually approximately true, we would have most likely seen some compositional shift in the population along the lines of Coalition-to-Green and Coalition-to-Labor, with a Labor-to-Green movement balancing it all out at the back end. But the numbers are pretty uncertain, so don’t lose too much sleep over it  😛

On the personal ratings, Gillard debuts on the Newspoll satisfaction charts (they left these out for the first Gillard poll) with a satisfied rating of 48, a dissatisfied rating of 29, a still relatively high Uncommitted of 23 – giving us a net satisfaction of +19. Ordinarily we’d say that was a pretty low debut figure for a leader – but we don’t really have anything to compare it too apart from Keating replacing Hawke. Keating’s debut in the polls back at the beginning of 1992 (for Newspoll) had his Satisfaction 21, Dissatisfaction 42, Uncommitted at a surprisingly high 37, giving us a net satisfaction of -21.

So, by the Keating yardstick Gillard is pretty popular – but then, by the Keating yardstick of raw public opinion approval, so is a dose of clap.

To place the satisfaction ratings into some longer term context, we can go to the charts (click to expand)

nppmsatsjuly19 npopsatsjuly19

newspollnetsatsjuly19

Meanwhile, on the beauty contest of Better PM, Gillard is up three to 57, Abbott is down 2 to 27 while the Uncommitteds retreated 2 points to come in on 16. Since Abbott became leader, this is how they’ve been tracking:

bpmjuly19

Newspoll also asked respondents which party is the “Better party to handle” the issues of the economy, climate change and asylum seekers. As we saw with the most recent Nielsen poll, large gender gaps have emerged, where the ALP’s lead on a given issue among women was higher than it was among men. First off, the raw top-line results and the gender breakdowns:

betterpartyjuly19

The ALP has pulled around even to the Coalition on the economy, leads on climate change and is ten points behind on asylum seekers at the headline level. But underneath, the ALP actually leads on all three with women. If we look at the gender gap that has opened here – the number of points women are more favourable to the ALP then men are – we get:

betterpartygendergapjuly19

The ALP is pulling 3 points more favourability with women than men on climate change (where this is slightly skewed by the high 26% of women preferring someone else -presumably the Greens). It’s a 16 point favourability gap on the economy and a 23 point favourability gap on asylum seekers, with the ALP actually leading on that issue among women outright.

Does Tony have a problem with women?

Yes.

But so saying, the opposite is also true – Gillard has a problem with men. It’s just that Abbott’s problem with women is much larger, giving us the ALP lead in the polls that we see.

Next up, last night’s Galaxy, where there’s some interesting results on perceptions of “trust”

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