Today via The Oz comes Newspoll Monday, with a two party result coming in with the  50/50 that we predicted yesterday, suggesting around a 2 point movement to the Coalition over the last week. The vote estimates, change and sample info look like this:


As a result, this brings our Pollytrend down to 50.9 on the phone pollster trend for today. The satisfaction and Better PM ratings came in as:


Newspoll also asked questions on various leader qualities, as well as the standard better party to handle questions:


“Arrogant” is in red because you have to read it in reverse, in that your want a smaller score and to be behind on that particular measure if you were a leader. The issue that the Coalition would be cheering about here is Abbott’s Newspoll debut on “Trustworthy” with what can only be described as a substantial score, as that was always a concern about perceptions of Abbott – a concern that Essential Report has highlighted before when they ask similar questions . As Newspoll doesn’t ask these questions often, we have gaps of up to nearly two years on some of these results, so the change values are mostly useless.

That said,Abbott’s lead on “experienced” shows how Labor has sacrificed one part of the ordinarily beneficial incumbency  equation by the ascension of Gillard to PM, while the lack of a large Labor lead on vision, in touch with voters and issue understanding highlights how Labor has thus far failed to sell their program – normally they lead substantially on these measures.

On the Better Party to handle issues, we get:

UPDATE:  These are actually Better Leader to Handle questions, not Better Party:


Which is pretty much par for the course. Interesting though is that Newspoll asked these same questions last week and there was quite a change for Gillard on a number of the issues, which we can see if we look at the size of the change in scores over the last 7 days:

UPDATE: These following results are actually Better Party to handle – slightly different wording, so treat the comparisons with care.

Thanks to Andrew Norton for picking that up – so go and visit his site as a show of thanks! 😛


Labor increased their Better Party/Leader to handle score by a whopping 14 points on climate change (the Citizens Assembly one would presume) , 7 on education and a decent sized 5 on the economy – while Abbott increased the Coalitions Asylum Seeker result by 6 points.

But again, be careful as the wording is slightly different.

As Newspoll doesn’t publish much on the way of cross-tabs, the usual charts come in like this:

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