Over the last week we’ve seen the implied probabilities of an ALP election win reduce dramatically by an average of 11.4%, which is the biggest weekly movement we’ve seen in the markets for some considerable time.While all agencies moved in the same direction, there as quite a spread with Sportsbet leading the pack with a 13.5% change while Betfair moved the least with a 7.5% change.
Looking at the price, probability and weekly change tables, we get:
While the tracking charts come in like this:
The post today was a little delayed, as I was running a large simulation on the markets to add some spiffy analysis – but since it, er, didnt work (shhh – occupational hazard 😛 ) – let’s instead look at the two party preferred swing market, where we can aggregate the Sportsbet and Sportinbet markets on this to see where the money is flowing in terms of predicted swing:
If we look at how that has changed over the week, it’s fairly dramatic: