This brisk Saturday morning brings us a Nielsen poll via the Fairfax press running from a sample of 1369, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark – the vote estimates, their change since last week’s Nielsen and the pref flows – broken down into gender and geography to the usual decimal place – come in like this:
The Preferred PM figures came in 49/41 to Gillard, with women having it 55/36 while Males were running with Abbott ahead 47/43. The full demographic tables of this Nielsen are here, while the three poll weighted average tables (the more robust estimates of the campaign so far) are here.
On the approval ratings we get:
You might notice that Gillard universally performs better among women than men. If we look at the the lead Gillard has over Abbott among both men and women, then compare how many more points favorable women are Gillard compared to Abbott (the gender gap) we get:
“Is easily influenced by minority groups” is in red as it’s the opposite to the rest of the questions since a smaller result is’ better’ than a larger result.
This is a two way street here – where Abbott is performing better among men as well as Gillard performing better among women. At the moment however, Abbott’s lead among men is larger than Gillard’s lead among women, giving Abbott the electoral advantage – a 10.2% lead among men on the two party preferred compared to Gillards TPP lead among women of only 7.2%.
Meanwhile, our Pollytrend now shows the all pollster trend sitting on a Labor two party preferred of 51.6% while our phone pollster trend ducks below 50 to come in on 49.6%.
Our usual Nielsen time series charts come in like this: