Newspoll (via The Oz) and Galaxy (via the News Ltd tabloids) come in today with identical primaries running 42/38 to the Coalition – but with Newspoll having the ALP leading on the two party preferred by 52/48 while Galaxy has it at 51/49 – suggesting that both pollsters got very close to the 51.5 mark and fell down either side by a few tenths of a percent, making the difference one of rounding to the nearest whole number.
Both have the Greens on 13 and the broad “Others” on 7. Newspoll ran a sample of 1712, giving an MoE that maxes out around the 2.4% mark while Galaxy ran a sample of 1014, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark.
Looking at how all the pollsters have moved over the campaign, we get (click to expand):
Feeding today’s polls into our trend estimates, the Phone Pollster trend is now running at 50.1% to the ALP. The Pollytrend chart we have in the sidebar looks a little visually dramatic of late:
Yet much of the visual impact is because of the 12 month time frame involved. If we just look at the last month or so of the polling trends, and see how the trend estimate was as of Saturday after the last Nielsen poll (named “Old Trend”) and what it is as of this morning after the Newspoll and Galaxy results, we get:
The dots are each individual polling result, the red dots with black borders are non-phone pollsters while the red and blue dots without borders are the individual phone pollster results. Much of the drama in the first chart suddenly disappears once we shorten the time period we’re actually looking at.
The trendline of Saturday had the movement away from Labor starting to flatten out, which the Nielsen and Galaxy results subsequently verified – hence the change in the new trendline.
In the other bits from Newspoll like satisfaction and Better PM ratings we get:
It’s worth noting that the undecideds on Better PM are much higher than they were two weeks out from the last election, the undecideds on PM Satisfaction are much higher than they were at this point in 2007, while the undecideds on the satisfaction of the Opposition Leader are currently slightly less than they were two weeks out from the previous election:
Abbott appears to be considered a more known and understood quantity than Rudd was two weeks out from the 2007 election day – which would suggest that when it comes to undecided voters, the ball is well and truly in Gillard’s court on determining which way they ultimately move. Meanwhile, the usual Newspoll charts come in like this: