This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 42/41 to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor. That’s a three point gain to the Coalition and a 1 point gain to Labor on the primaries over the last week, making for a Greens vote declining from 13 last week to 10 this week, giving us a two point gain to the Coalition on the two party preferred over the last seven days. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 2763, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 1.9% mark.
Essential, having a two week rolling sample, appears to have finally caught up to the phone pollsters movement we’ve witnessed over the last few weeks.
Additional questions this week looked at approval ratings, better party to manage questions and how opinion has changed of each leader over the campaign.
On the approvals, I plan to look at these in a separate post, but suffice to say Abbott’s net approval is up 5 to minus 5, Gillards is down 3 to 8 and Gillard leads on “Better PM” by 45/33 – a 3 point gain to Tone and a 3 point decline by Gillard over last week.
On the other questions we get:
Which of the major parties – Labor or Liberal ‐ do you think is the best party when it comes to ‐
(click to expand)
Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?
The gender cross-tabs went:
By gender – men 22% up/44% down and women 16% up/40% down.
Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?
On the gender cross-tabs we get:
By gender – men 28% up/26% down and women 25% up/28% down.
It still looks to be all about Julia in terms of the final election result.
In comments on a previous post, someone suggested that the 2010 polling is looking a little like the 2004 polling. If we line up the polls from Galaxy, Nielsen and Newspoll and backcast the Newspoll two party preferred results in 2004 on the basis of 2004 election preference flows (since Newspoll had what looked to be problematic respondent allocated preferences in 2004, but the primaries were fine), we can compare them to what we’ve seen this campaign.
Comparing the Coalition polling of 2004 to the ALP polling of 2010, where the time axis is “weeks to election day”, we get:
There’s some food for thought – especially in light of a Galaxy question asked in their last poll: