Last night the two agencies offering the best prices had a bit of movement towards the Coalition (making me wonder whether it was advanced knowledge of a good Coalition Newspoll result)- but that washed out of the system pretty quickly. As a result, over the last 24 hours nothing much happened on the markets – with Betfair’s move to Labor counterbalanced by Sportingbet’s move to the Coalition. Labor still holds a 73.8% implied probability of victory on Saturday.
In 2007, the individual seat markets didn’t really get their act together properly until the last few days of the campaign – so it’s still a little bit early to be taking them too seriously at the moment. So saying, we certainly will have a good squiz at them in a few days time.