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Aug 16, 2010

Newspoll Monday and Trends Update

Today’s Newspoll via The Oz shows little movement, running from a sample of 1693 and giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.4% mark. The vote estimates look like this:


Today’s Newspoll via The Oz shows little movement, running from a sample of 1693 and giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.4% mark. The vote estimates look like this:


You’ll notice that the Coalition dropped a point and the Greens gained one on the primaries, yet the two party preferred result showing no movement – suggesting that a few rounding issues are at play over the last two polls.

Feeding the results into our trend measures, where we ramp up the responsiveness of the algorithm as we head into the final week gives us:


Our phone pollster trend now has the ALP two party preferred sitting on 51.9% while our all pollster trend is sitting on 52.2%. The points with the black borders are the non-phone polls.

Moving on to the satisfaction results we get:

pmsataug16 opsataug16


Over the last few weeks, not a great lot has happened. Gillard is in a better position that Abbott and appears to be pretty much stuck there. We also see that with the Better PM:


Abbott really needed to be equal to Gillard on these by now and 2 or 3 points ahead on the TPP to have a really good shot at victory.

With the final few days to go, sit back, break out the popcorn and watch for the last week campaigning brainfarts – they’re inevitable. We’ve already had the Wyatt Roy (LNP candidate for Longman) supporter blow his top, with young Wyatt standing in the background probably horrified at what was happening (though still not telling Slugger to put it back in his pants -not a good look)


There will surely be more.


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33 thoughts on “Newspoll Monday and Trends Update

  1. Eponymous

    That video was incredible.

  2. Steam driven Interweb

    #qanda has crashed!

  3. Rocket Rocket

    A little off thread Poss, but I just did those two tests you link to on “About Pollytics” at the top right [pre-election cabin/homeoffice fever!], and I’m not sure their methodologies correlate too well.

    On the second – (World’s Smallest Political Quiz) – I nearly scored a bullseye – 50/40 in the “Centrist” section

    On the first – (Political Compass) – using the same analogy my dart would have grazed the Dalai Lama!!!!!!

  4. dedalus

    Hi Poss, Enjoy your posts. Could you tell me what is the % value of having your name higher up on the ballot paper, the so called donkey vote, all other things being equal.
    I’ve heard various estimates on this ranging from 0.5 – 2.0 %

  5. cud chewer

    Possum, what do you make of the steady increase in Lib primaries in essential? Tempted to put that result down to noise, but essential is odd in that regard – even with larger running samples you’d expect more week to week noise than they seem to get. Is it possible they’re doing something internally to smooth that but accidentally captures more information from 3 or 4 weeks back? Just randomly speculating here.

  6. David Richards

    They’d also be the first to be booted out with low unemployment, low interest rates, and low inflation

    It just defies all logic for the ALP to lose under those conditions.

  7. John64

    @Possum Comitatus “they’d be the first government in Australian federal election history to win the national vote but lose the election”.

    Well, they were the first government in Australian Federal Election history to remove a first-term Prime Minister, so maybe they’re up for breaking records? 🙂

  8. dylan3

    Thanks Possum for saving our sanity- while all around the noisy commentariat keeps bellowing the same old whinges- “No real leadership…..Where’s the leadership?…. People are demanding leadership….. who’s showing leadership? etc etc”
    What on earth do these people want? Hitler? or Putin perhaps.
    Don’t they know this is supposed to be a democratic nation? Party leaders are just that- they lead their Parliamentray party- which consists of Representatives of the People.
    What’s even worse- as soon as someone like Rudd shows some “real leadership”- such as imposing a Resource Super Profits tax on billionaire miners- they all scream-” They didn’t consult us first! ”
    Strewth! Who’d be a politician?

  9. Cat

    Thanks for that image Poss – had brief visions of a possum in the role of Don in a remake of Don’s Party.

  10. Possum Comitatus

    Dunno Cat – haven’t really thought about it yet apart from deciding that I’ll be staying at home rather than hosting a do somewhere.

  11. Cat

    I have been avoiding all coverage of the election for 2 weeks (literally not watched/listened to or read a thing) except checking you regularly and reading Grog’s daily summaries so pardon me if I missed the answer to this question elsewhere: are you blogging on the night or busy combing your goldfish’s hair?
    BTW thanks to both yourself and Grog for keeping me from enquiring about immigration to the Maldives.

  12. Possum Comitatus

    The Pollytrend got a bit more aggressive – but that only affected the backcasting (showing where the trend actually was in the past).

    The all poll trend is converging because the majority of the polls coming out are phone polls. As the series is time weighted, and with more phone polls coming out with large sample sizes, we’d expect them to converge a fair bit as phone pollsters take much more of the weight.

  13. cud chewer

    57.5 rather

  14. cud chewer

    Oh btw..why has the all poll trend converged with the phone poll trend despite that 57.6 outlier?

  15. cud chewer

    Possum, I take it there’s been no change to the parameters of PollyTrend?

    If so, wow, that’s wild 🙂

    (does bear a certain similarity to a um.. er.. train wreck.. 🙂 )

  16. Possum Comitatus

    Country Kid – it’s only longstanding because it’s an incumbency issue and the Coalition had 11 years of being in front. Once a government changes, it takes a while for it to switch – a term or so -but it usually does.

    The other problem with “better to manage the economy” is that it’s mostly a meaningless abstract concept for polling respondents. In 2007, the Coalition led on “the economy”, but then Labor was ahead on everything from living standards, employment, prices – all the actual “lived economy” stuff.

    That’s why I don’t pay much attention to it. We statistically tore it all apart a while back over here:


  17. Country Kid


    RN this morning talked about the long standing advantage the coalition had over Labor re: economy.

    Is this accurate? I would have thought Labor polled quite well over the last three years on this metric.

  18. Possum Comitatus

    Barking – in 1998, the government lost the national vote but won the election, the opposite.

    That happens regularly – such as in 1990.

  19. triton

    [Beazley won 51%tpp and lost to howard.]

    Beazley wasn’t running a government.

  20. Barking

    Sorry Poss,
    Beazley won 51%tpp and lost to howard.

  21. Barking

    I know you didn’t ask me but.
    Galaxy was crap if somewhat interesting.
    Of course they can lose the election with a tpp of 51%.
    I think its better to move on to todays poll, much more consistent with whats happening.

  22. Possum Comitatus

    Dan, they could – but they’d be the first government in Australian federal election history to win the national vote but lose the election.

    I went over the Galaxy and Newspoll marginal seat polling here:

  23. Dan Cass

    What do you think of the weekend’s Galaxy poll? Can Labor lose this election on the seats while winning national HoR TPP?

  24. triton

    [With an 85% Greens flow to the ALP, the ALP two party preferred would be 53.2%]

    Going from a Greens PV of 8% in 2007 to 12% this time makes the 85% flow the most likely IMO, which is backed up by the Nielsen poll. But the 2PP of 53.2% looks high, perhaps because a Labor PV of 41% is more like an upper limit than an expected figure. Greens get most of their increase from Labor so I think 39-40% PV is more likely.

  25. Possum Comitatus


    The Nielsen poll on Saturday – where they let respondents allocate preferences – had a Greens to ALP preference flow of 86%. SO saying, it’s been averaging around 80% except for a short period at the end of the Rudd leadership where it fell to as low as 68%.

    Historically, as the Greens vote grew, so too did the preference flow rate to Labor. It may well do that again this election, however it would only be by a few percent.

    So what’s a few percent worth?

    Let’s say that at the election the ALP gets 41%, the Coalition gets 42%, the Greens get 12% and the “Others” get 5%. Let’s also assume that the preferences of the “Others” flow 60% to the Coalition and 40% to Labor.

    With an 85% Greens flow to the ALP, the ALP two party preferred would be 53.2%
    With an 80% Greens flow to the ALP, the ALP two party preferred would be 52.6%
    With an 75% Greens flow to the ALP, the ALP two party preferred would be 52%
    With an 70% Greens flow to the ALP, the ALP two party preferred would be 51.4%

    Barking – I reckon the Greens vote will certainly be higher than in 2007. It would be the greatest campaigning failure in modern political history if the Greens blew their support levels in the campaign to come in around 8%.

    If the Greens get around 12%, they should be satisfied with themselves. If they get higher than 12%, they should be ecstatic.

    On the Others, it’s a good question. Fewer candidates should mean less vote share going to the Others on the one hand – but a disengaged electorate should also increase it (if there is an increase in the donkey vote for instance, or a pox on both your houses type effect).

  26. Rod Hagen


    The trend as the Green vote has grown in each subsequent election has been for the flow of Green preferences to Labor to increase as well. The evidence suggests that most of the growth in the Greens vote is coming directly from former Labor voters concerned about the later parties shift to the right. Not surprisingly in most cases their prefs flow to Labor rather than the libs.

    Antony Green discussed this matter in his blog in July at http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/07/green-preferences-at-the-2007-election.html

    The only poll evidence available seems to suggest that the flow of Greens prefs to labor may increase by at least a couple of percentage points this time around. The real effect of this will vary depending on the size of the Green vote in marginal electorates (it is likely to vary substantially) but may increase the overall 2PP labor vote a little. It may have an impact in Victoria especially, where the Green vote is likely to be high, and could make a difference in seats such as Corangamite and McEwen, for example.

  27. Barking

    Hi Poss,
    Sorry to be boringly predictable with this q but there polls before the 2007 for the Greens did converge around 8% this time they have converged around 12-13%. Do you feel, five days out, that the Greens will hold at say 12% or will the mythical fade happen? If so where will it go? Secondly, any predictions around the vote for ‘others’. I did mention a while back that as there were less others (200) less candidates that logicall it should be less.?
    Sunday’s coffee and papers and spreadsheets are going to be very interesting.

  28. kymbos

    Homer: What’s heaven like?
    God: You’ll find out when you die, Homer.
    Homer: But I can’t wait that long!
    God: You can’t wait six days?
    Homer: No, I want to know now!

  29. marekdiug

    The 2PP calculation uses percentages from the 2007 election but i have read somewhere that polling recently is showing that preferences from the greens are flowing at a higher rate to the ALP than previously. Is this the case? and is so will it have a measurable effect on the 2PP?

  30. Tweets that mention Newspoll Monday and Trends Update – Pollytics -- Topsy.com

    […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Possum Comitatus and Eddie L, STVFTA. STVFTA said: RT @Pollytics: On Pollytics: Newspoll Monday and Trends Update http://bit.ly/czoDn0 […]

  31. Possum Comitatus

    Kymbos – it won’t be over till August 21.

    But I’ve never thought Labor wouldn’t win – the Coalition really needed to pull the phone pollster trend down to about 48 mid campaign for me to have considered an Abbott win a serious possibility

  32. kymbos

    So Possum, is this a silly question – Is it over? You’ve called it to Labor?

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