Today’s Newspoll via The Oz shows little movement, running from a sample of 1693 and giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.4% mark. The vote estimates look like this:
You’ll notice that the Coalition dropped a point and the Greens gained one on the primaries, yet the two party preferred result showing no movement – suggesting that a few rounding issues are at play over the last two polls.
Feeding the results into our trend measures, where we ramp up the responsiveness of the algorithm as we head into the final week gives us:
Our phone pollster trend now has the ALP two party preferred sitting on 51.9% while our all pollster trend is sitting on 52.2%. The points with the black borders are the non-phone polls.
Moving on to the satisfaction results we get:
Over the last few weeks, not a great lot has happened. Gillard is in a better position that Abbott and appears to be pretty much stuck there. We also see that with the Better PM:
Abbott really needed to be equal to Gillard on these by now and 2 or 3 points ahead on the TPP to have a really good shot at victory.
With the final few days to go, sit back, break out the popcorn and watch for the last week campaigning brainfarts – they’re inevitable. We’ve already had the Wyatt Roy (LNP candidate for Longman) supporter blow his top, with young Wyatt standing in the background probably horrified at what was happening (though still not telling Slugger to put it back in his pants -not a good look)
There will surely be more.