Today brings us a full Galaxy in the News Ltd. tabloids and 2/3rds of a Newspoll in The Oz (shakes head). We’ll run through the Newspoll figures tomorrow when the poll is completed.
The Galaxy has the Coalition leading on the primaries 41 (down 1)/ 38 (steady), washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor – a one point increase to the ALP since the last Galaxy 10 days ago. The Greens are up 1 to 14, while the broad “others” are steady on 7. This comes from a sample of 1200 – giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.8% mark. As an observation, I can’t remember the last time that Galaxy overestimated the Labor TPP vote with their last poll before an election – if anyone can remember such an occasion, could they drop in a comment?
The spooky similarity between the ALP 2010 vs. Coalition 2004 polling patterns continue. The last Newspoll in 2004 produced a 50/50 result. Taking today’s Newspoll at face value for a bit of fun and overlaying the two series we get:
All that needs to happen now is for Nielsen to come out with a 53 or 54 tomorrow (as they did in 2004) and the weirdness shall be complete! 😛
The Greens vote has been the phenomena of the polling campaign – after taking a hit when Gillard first became leader, it quickly jumped back to its earlier highs and has pretty much remained there. If we have a squiz at how they’ve polled across August:
The Greens are looking at somewhere around the 12 to 14% mark tomorrow if the pollsters have it right – with only Essential having the Greens vote depressed. That will be a pretty remarkable achievement should it happen.
The other interesting thing to come out of the Galaxy was on the following question:
If Labor/Coalition wins Saturday’s federal election, will it be because they deserve to be re-elected/elected or or because they’re better than the alternative/because Labor deserves to lose?
Feel that enthusiasm folks! 😛
Being the day before election day – there’ll be more silliness around than usual, particularly in the media. Just keep that in mind and remember to breathe!
And don’t forget (disgraceful self promotion) – Possum needs a job!