pollytrend

Feb 25, 2011

The trends for February’s ends

Now that a Morgan phone poll has been released, we have a complete set of polls making up a single polling cycle for the first time this year.  Since some of these buggers have spent a

Possum Comitatus — Editor of Pollytics

Possum Comitatus

Editor of Pollytics

Now that a Morgan phone poll has been released, we have a complete set of polls making up a single polling cycle for the first time this year.  Since some of these buggers have spent a fair bit of time in the festive season wilderness, it’s probably worth taking a look at how they’ve all moved and over what period.

Plugging this into the trend algorithms gives us:

The current point estimates of the Pollytrend measures can be seen over in the sidebar to the right, where it shows the ALP down 2.4% on the primary since the election, the Coalition up 0.1% and the Greens staying flat. That washes out to a 1.1% two party preferred swing to the Coalition since August. Rather than navel gazing these things to death – the charts pretty much speak for themselves.

The recent slide of the Greens primary is interesting to note though.

18 comments

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18 thoughts on “The trends for February’s ends

  1. Bellistner

    replace Gillard with Shorten?

    Nonono, they’ll replace a bloodnut, religion-pandering atheist with a gay, ok-with-no-gay-Marriage asian! It’s as obvious as the sky is blue! 😉

  2. Grog

    [Speaking of punters, the betting market is interesting:
    To win the next election: Coalition $1.61, ALP $2.26]

    Pretty sure the “bookies predict better than the polls” argument was killed off in the Fed and Vic elections last year which the bookies had being won comfortably by the ALP.

  3. Possum Comitatus

    Caly – about 60-61 in April 96. Newspoll didn’t run TPP back then between campaigns, only primaries. So using the rounded primary numbers, that’s what the two party preferred would have been around.

  4. calyptorhynchus

    Hey Possum,

    Just a quick question, what was the highest TPP that Howard ever got?

  5. Possum Comitatus

    None at all Ravenred.

    It just looks like a “thing”.

  6. lenwx

    Bobalot,
    I made no argument for Shorten to replace Gillard. I merely asked the question since it was being reported. I also think it is ridiculous, as the ALP cannot afford to change leadars yet again. However it is equally ridiculous for people to consider Abbott’s days are numbered.

    Anyway the freefall has begun. Esential Reseach has a 3% fall for ALP from 51 to 48 and 3% rise for Coalition from 49 to 52 in 2PP. For Essential Research a 3% change is very significant.

  7. Ravenred

    BTW Poss, any speculation on the reasons / areas that the Greens have fallen away?

  8. Ravenred

    Maybe the only freefall we are about to see is Gillard and the ALP. Abbott had a bad few weeks and as usual he was written off with comments like “Abbott’s leadership is now terminal”. His personal standing took a hit, but the Coalition support held up. After Gillard’s high risk carbon tax strategy, the question could now become how terminal her leadership is.

    MMmmmmmmaybe… Gillard has certainly embarked on a more high-risk strategy by actually rolling out a policy agenda (which hasn’t really been done since the early times of the Rudd Government, by either side). To what degree Abbott can effectively oppose this (compared to issuing three-word slogans and saying “No.” a lot) is going to determine his fate.

    The question (for me) is whether he’s going to be tagged as being policy lazy by not offering alternatives, and in the process, looking un-Prime Ministerial. He had fantastic tactical success against Gillard during the campaign, but whether the line of attack was strategically wise is open to question.

  9. Bobalot

    That’s funny. I make a comment mocking how ridiculous your argument is and ….. you just shift the argument to something else.

  10. lenwx

    Bobalot,
    I am only passing on the information. It is no less ridiculous than those who thought Abbott would only last as little as two months. Abbott has brough the Coalition to within a whisker of an improbable election victory and has them well placed for the next election. The ALP and its supporters continue to underestimate him at their peril.

  11. Bobalot

    Replace Gillard with Shorten…right.

    What exactly have you been smoking?

  12. lenwx

    Steve says:
    “Looks like 52 is best the Coalition can manage in it’s present configuration and unlimited downside. Strap yourselves in for an interesting freefall.”

    Calyptorhynchus says:
    “All this about to change now the Carbon wars have begun”.

    Maybe the only freefall we are about to see is Gillard and the ALP. Abbott had a bad few weeks and as usual he was written off with comments like “Abbott’s leadership is now terminal”. His personal standing took a hit, but the Coalition support held up. After Gillard’s high risk carbon tax strategy, the question could now become how terminal her leadership is.

    As the polls plummet, as is likely, will Labor loses its nerve and replace Gillard with Shorten? The punters seem to think that is a good possibility:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/punters-ditch-gillard-in-favour-of-shorten/story-fn3dxiwe-1226011993983
    Abbott is at $1.50 to retain his job.

    Alternatively, if the ALP can hold onto the independents long enough to help it pass the legislation, will the electorate move on? Clearly Abbott’s strategy continues to be to destabilise the government enough to force an early election.

    Interesting times. I hope the Pollytrend can keep up.

    Speaking of punters, the betting market is interesting:
    To win the next election: Coalition $1.61, ALP $2.26

  13. calyptorhynchus

    I suspect all this may begin to change now the Carbon Wars have begun. 🙂

  14. William Bowe

    Dig it. Didn’t see their respondent-allocated preferences. Is that a trade secret? Was it in a full release I missed with state breakdowns and such?

  15. Possum Comitatus

    William, I’m using respondent allocated preferences for Nielsen. I want a set of them in the system to go with the rest being election allocated.

  16. William Bowe

    Wasn’t Nielsen 54-46, rather than 53-47?

  17. steve

    Looks like 52 is best the Coalition can manage in it’s present configuration and unlimited downside. Strap yourselves in for an interesting freefall.

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