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QLD Politics

Apr 10, 2013

Megapoll - Full Breakdowns

The data and breakdowns from the largest political poll ever conducted in Australia - all focusing on privatisation and Qld

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For those of you that haven’t heard, the largest scientific political poll undertaken in Australian history has just been released. Over the next week or so, we’ll take a bit of a look at it. It was commissioned by Together  – Qlds public sector union (caveat, , my employer) – and undertaken by ReachTEL.

The sample size was 36,323 conducted across all 89 Qld electorates. The poll asked the following questions:

1. State Voting Intentions

The Qld State government is currently considering a major report into the way Queensland is run. This report, called the Costello Report, recommends that many public services be sold and outsourced to the private sector.

2. Would you support or oppose the privatisation of electricity and infrastructure assets in Qld?

3. Would you support or oppose the privatisation and outsourcing of hospitals and public health services in Qld?

4. Would you support or oppose the privatisation and outsourcing  of community services such as disability support and child protection?

5. If the Liberal National Party state government were to follow the recommendations of the Costello report and privatise these public services, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberal National Party at the next election?

6. If the Liberal National Party  state government called an election to seek a mandate from the Queensland people to privatise public services, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

The Statel level results can be seen over at ReachTEL, but we’ll break them down into 18 smaller groups of seat aggregations called micro-regions that have solid sample sizes. Firstly, the names of the micro-regions, the electorates they contain, and a map of the region so you can get a handle on what it actually means

Inner City: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, South Brisbane, Stafford, Mt Coot-tha

 

 

Brisbane East: Clayfield, Lytton, Chatsworth, Capalaba, Cleaveland

 

 

 

Brisbane North West CircleAspley, Everton, Ferny Grove, Moggill

 

 

 

North Bayside: Nudgee, Sandgate, Redcliffe

 

 

 

Brisbane Outer North: Murrumba, Kallangur, Morayfield, Pine Rivers

 

 

 

Brisbane South West: Ipswich, Ipswich West, Inala, Bundamba

 

 

 

Brisbane Inner South: Mt Ommaney, Indooroopilly, Sunnybank, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Yeerongpilly

 

 

 

Brisbane South East: Woodridge, Stretton, Logan, Waterford, Springwood, Algester

 

 

Gold Coast North: Redlands, Coomera, Albert, Broadwater, Gaven

 

 

Gold Coast South: Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, Currumbin, Medgeeraba

 

 

North West Corridor: Callide, Gregory, Mt Isa, Dalrymple, Nanango

 

 

 

South West: Beaudesert, Southern Downs, Lockyer, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Warrego, Condamine

 

 

 

Sunshine Coast South: Pumicestone, Glass House, Caloundra, Kawana, Buderim


 

Sunshine Coast North: Maroochydore, Nicklin, Noosa, Gympie

 

 

Fraser Coast/Wide Bay: Maryborough, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Burnett

 

 

Central Coast: Gladstone, Rockhampton, Keppel, Mirani, Mackay, Whitsunday

 

 

North Qld: Burdekin, Townsville, Mundingburra, Thuringowa

 

 

Far North Qld: Mulgrave, Barron River, Cook, Hinchinbrook, Cairns

 

 

These micro-regions carry the following sample sizes and margins of error:

Now all the process stuff is out of the way, on with the questions and results!

Question 1: Voting Intentions:

 

Question 2. Privatisation of electricity and infrastructure assets:

 

Question 3: Privatisation of hospitals and outsourcing of public health services:

Question 4: Privatisation and outsourcing  of community services such as disability support and child protection.    

 

Question 5: If the Liberal National Party state government were to follow the recommendations of the Costello report and privatise these public services, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberal National Party at the next election?  

 

Question 6: If the Liberal National Party  state government called an election to seek a mandate from the Queensland people to privatise public services, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

Finally, some swing figures on all those. First up – the 2012 Election Results for context:

 

Now the Primary Vote Swings involved with Question 1 – the current voting intentions. Notice the big variations in regional swings with the LNP suffering big swings against them already in the cities, yet have strengthened their own vote in some of the regional areas.

 

Next, the primary vote swings involved with question 6 – an election where the Newman government was seeking a privatisation mandate.

Finally, the difference between the two – or the additional swing induced by opposition to privatisation

There’s a lot to absorb here – we’ll do some actual analysis of the figures in a later post

 

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12 comments

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12 thoughts on “Megapoll – Full Breakdowns

  1. michael crook

    Newman’s agenda is quite scary and it will be interesting to see what he says at the Queensland Future forum on 10 May.
    There is a direct line of ideological descent from Thatcher, through Howard, her greatest acolyte, through Cameron and back down under to Abbott, and on to Newman. I know the Queensland I want to see in thirty years time and I doubt it will bear much relation to Campbell’s vision.

  2. John64

    My thoughts, in order:

    1. Holy shit! A possum update! 🙂

    2. Bugger, it’s not Federal polling. 🙁

    3. I don’t get why Governments continue to insist on selling absolutely everything. :/ Be interesting to see if the LibNats push ahead with it.

  3. Em_E

    Kevin Bonham interesting and informative response.

    Achmed I can relate to your point in terms of privatised prisons.

  4. Draco Houston

    Is it possible to get voting intention by electorate? I live in the Fraser Coast region and the results from Hervey Bay being mixed in with Maryborough’s skews things a bit. Maryborough had an independent MP, Chris Foley, who very narrowly lost his seat and retired. I’m interested to see how the vacuum was taken up by LNP, ALP and KAP, also if there is any swing in Hervey Bay. A big table of all 89 would be wonderful.

  5. GF50

    Very good possum, a poll I can actually read, can’t wait for the follow up.

  6. Ron Chambers

    What is funny here: Labor Bligh got kicked out because she didn’t announce her planned privatizations until after the election. This undermined her credibility. LNP Campbell Newman didn’t win the last election, Bligh lost it. He adopted the small target strategy. His platform was “I am not Bligh”. And he won only to do the very same thing that Bligh got the boot for.

  7. Achmed

    Interesting. Looks like people don’t like privatisation.

    Is it because they understand that in many instances they are still paying taxpayer money to the private company to ensure the company makes a profit. And that the only people who really benefit from privatisation are the Board/CEO and shareholders – certainly not the taxpayer public

  8. 2353

    Kevin Bonham – perhaps I can answer the question regarding minor parties. I was surveyed by ReachTel for this poll and I certainly “changed my vote” from a minor party to a major one if (paraphrased) the election was a referendum on privatisation.

    In my case the rationalisation is that I want the major parties (in reality the only ones that will form governments in the short to medium term) get the message.

    Poss – you done real good. It’s telling that the only comment from the LNP was that this poll was push polling from a Union. While the Union bit was clearly acknowledged, it wasn’t a push poll.

  9. Kevin Bonham

    Methods quibble: did you determine by experiment whether or not inclusion of the words “called the Costello Report” in the preamble between questions 1 and 2 affected results?

    My concern here is that while the reference to the name of the report is perfectly factual (at least in the sense of that name being widely used in popular discussion), it is also not strictly necessary to the following questions, and it causes the respondent to think about Peter Costello and his association with the plan. Voter views of Costello might be negative, so this is bringing to the forefront a possible reason for opposition – Peter Costello is involved – which might skew the responses. It might not actually make a difference, and probably wouldn’t make much, but do you know?

    Secondly, I found it interesting in the above findings that in many areas the Green vote goes fractionally down (and in some ditto for Others and KAP) in the privatisation mandate question. Assuming this is not just a statistical artefact of some kind, do the data include details of the flow of votes in and out of parties in these instances, so that it is known where the votes leaving the minor forces go? Do some voters actually change from minor parties to the LNP in this scenario, or do they change to the ALP, presumably on the grounds of supporting the main Opposition when it really matters?

  10. This little black duck

    Poss,

    I think you were in Redcliffe. Still there?

  11. Peter Murphy

    You dun good, Possum, you dun good.

  12. This little black duck

    Poss,

    Congratulations!

    Just read the summary so far.

    Mr Newman’s reaction says much about him.

    I wish others would “push-poll” like this.

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