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QLD Politics

Apr 10, 2013

Megapoll - Full Breakdowns

The data and breakdowns from the largest political poll ever conducted in Australia - all focusing on privatisation and Qld

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For those of you that haven’t heard, the largest scientific political poll undertaken in Australian history has just been released. Over the next week or so, we’ll take a bit of a look at it. It was commissioned by Together  – Qlds public sector union (caveat, , my employer) – and undertaken by ReachTEL.

The sample size was 36,323 conducted across all 89 Qld electorates. The poll asked the following questions:

1. State Voting Intentions

The Qld State government is currently considering a major report into the way Queensland is run. This report, called the Costello Report, recommends that many public services be sold and outsourced to the private sector.

2. Would you support or oppose the privatisation of electricity and infrastructure assets in Qld?

3. Would you support or oppose the privatisation and outsourcing of hospitals and public health services in Qld?

4. Would you support or oppose the privatisation and outsourcing  of community services such as disability support and child protection?

5. If the Liberal National Party state government were to follow the recommendations of the Costello report and privatise these public services, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberal National Party at the next election?

6. If the Liberal National Party  state government called an election to seek a mandate from the Queensland people to privatise public services, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

The Statel level results can be seen over at ReachTEL, but we’ll break them down into 18 smaller groups of seat aggregations called micro-regions that have solid sample sizes. Firstly, the names of the micro-regions, the electorates they contain, and a map of the region so you can get a handle on what it actually means

Inner City: Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Bulimba, South Brisbane, Stafford, Mt Coot-tha

 

 

Brisbane East: Clayfield, Lytton, Chatsworth, Capalaba, Cleaveland

 

 

 

Brisbane North West CircleAspley, Everton, Ferny Grove, Moggill

 

 

 

North Bayside: Nudgee, Sandgate, Redcliffe

 

 

 

Brisbane Outer North: Murrumba, Kallangur, Morayfield, Pine Rivers

 

 

 

Brisbane South West: Ipswich, Ipswich West, Inala, Bundamba

 

 

 

Brisbane Inner South: Mt Ommaney, Indooroopilly, Sunnybank, Greenslopes, Mansfield, Yeerongpilly

 

 

 

Brisbane South East: Woodridge, Stretton, Logan, Waterford, Springwood, Algester

 

 

Gold Coast North: Redlands, Coomera, Albert, Broadwater, Gaven

 

 

Gold Coast South: Southport, Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, Currumbin, Medgeeraba

 

 

North West Corridor: Callide, Gregory, Mt Isa, Dalrymple, Nanango

 

 

 

South West: Beaudesert, Southern Downs, Lockyer, Toowoomba North, Toowoomba South, Warrego, Condamine

 

 

 

Sunshine Coast South: Pumicestone, Glass House, Caloundra, Kawana, Buderim


 

Sunshine Coast North: Maroochydore, Nicklin, Noosa, Gympie

 

 

Fraser Coast/Wide Bay: Maryborough, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Burnett

 

 

Central Coast: Gladstone, Rockhampton, Keppel, Mirani, Mackay, Whitsunday

 

 

North Qld: Burdekin, Townsville, Mundingburra, Thuringowa

 

 

Far North Qld: Mulgrave, Barron River, Cook, Hinchinbrook, Cairns

 

 

These micro-regions carry the following sample sizes and margins of error:

Now all the process stuff is out of the way, on with the questions and results!

Question 1: Voting Intentions:

 

Question 2. Privatisation of electricity and infrastructure assets:

 

Question 3: Privatisation of hospitals and outsourcing of public health services:

Question 4: Privatisation and outsourcing  of community services such as disability support and child protection.    

 

Question 5: If the Liberal National Party state government were to follow the recommendations of the Costello report and privatise these public services, would that make you more or less likely to vote for the Liberal National Party at the next election?  

 

Question 6: If the Liberal National Party  state government called an election to seek a mandate from the Queensland people to privatise public services, which of the following would receive your first preference vote? If you are undecided to which do you even have a slight leaning?

Finally, some swing figures on all those. First up – the 2012 Election Results for context:

 

Now the Primary Vote Swings involved with Question 1 – the current voting intentions. Notice the big variations in regional swings with the LNP suffering big swings against them already in the cities, yet have strengthened their own vote in some of the regional areas.

 

Next, the primary vote swings involved with question 6 – an election where the Newman government was seeking a privatisation mandate.

Finally, the difference between the two – or the additional swing induced by opposition to privatisation

There’s a lot to absorb here – we’ll do some actual analysis of the figures in a later post

 

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