Possum Comitatus — Editor of Pollytics

Possum Comitatus

Editor of Pollytics

Political Commentator and Blogger

Latest

When Wholes Are Less Than Sums of the Parts

When Wholes Are Less Than Sums of the Parts

July 1, 2013 14

Headline national two party preferred results are clouding the dynamics and reality of what is happening at the state level - where elections are won and lost

Anatomy of a Modern Campaign

Anatomy of a Modern Campaign

April 22, 2013 20

One of the biggest jokes politics plays on itself is “secrecy” – secret internal polling that apparently makes public polling wrong, secret campaign tactics that relegate Sun Tzu to the status of mere amateur, through to other various secret and supposedly profound insights into the electorate that are beyond the comprehension of normal mortals.  Cryptic […]

Megapoll – Full Breakdowns

Megapoll – Full Breakdowns

April 10, 2013 12

The data and breakdowns from the largest political poll ever conducted in Australia - all focusing on privatisation and Qld

Trends, The Horserace and random numbers

Trends, The Horserace and random numbers

November 11, 2012 11

Today we look at latest polling trends, the timing issues of the ALP carbon tax recovery and big analysis of how most of Australia’s polling and political commentary is based on random numbers.

Qld State Polling and Bad Analysis

Qld State Polling and Bad Analysis

October 1, 2012 10

How two pollsters showing identical results can deliver two completely different accounts of voter behaviour - why timeliness matters if you want to avoid bad analysis

The Primary Dynamic

The Primary Dynamic

September 29, 2012 12

The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.

Introducing the Qld Treasurer

Introducing the Qld Treasurer

July 2, 2012 33

Introducing Tim Nicholls, the man who doesn't realise he's the Treasurer

What Australians Believe

What Australians Believe

June 11, 2012 49

Australian economic beliefs and our perceptions on the role of government

The State of Play for June

The State of Play for June

June 5, 2012 18

Australian federal polling trends for June

The 2012 State of Play

The 2012 State of Play

February 9, 2012 49

Australian federal polling trends and election simulations

Australian Exceptionalism

Australian Exceptionalism

December 8, 2011 135

Australian economic and social overview - wealth, income, distribution, growth and human development.

How Australian Pollsters lean

How Australian Pollsters lean

November 8, 2011 14

Comparing Australian pollsters and their relative partisan leans

Trend Updates for November

Trend Updates for November

November 8, 2011 7

Latest Australian political polling trends for October

Wipeout

Wipeout

September 28, 2011 35

Australian federal election simulations and polling trends

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

August 16, 2011 19

Australian polling trends for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government

July 2, 2011 24

Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be […]

New Trends and Gender Shifts

New Trends and Gender Shifts

June 5, 2011 15

Plugging all the new polling data of late into our trend system, we find that the medium term deterioration in the Labor government’s two party preferred vote has stabilised out around the 46% mark over the last 6 weeks. A lot of day to day stuff came and went, from budgets to boat people, from […]

The CSIRO gets HIP to debunking media hysteria

The CSIRO gets HIP to debunking media hysteria

April 24, 2011 155

The CSIRO last week released what was effectively a statistical analysis of the reality surrounding large parts of the infamous Home Insulation Program – or for those of you not familiar with this particular policy, you may have heard about it via it’s common alternative name in the mainstream media, the “OMG, PETER GARRETT IS […]

First Election Simulation for 2011

First Election Simulation for 2011

April 1, 2011 21

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]

Crashes and Rebounds

Crashes and Rebounds

March 22, 2011 18

Time for a polling trends update. First up, the broad sweep. Plugging all the latest polling data fit to print into our system, this is how the two party preferred Pollytrend has changed. We see a relatively sharp downturn for the government starting in late February, bottoming out around the second week of March, before […]