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betting markets

Headline Betting Market Friday

Today’s headline betting markets – like clockwork mind you-  show a run towards the Coalition with the five agency aggregate implied probability of Labor victory falling from 74.8% to 69.6%. Right about now, it’s worth taking a squiz at the headline Centrebet market probabilities for ALP victory over this campaign, overlaid against what occurred in […]

Betting Markets and the run to certainty

Today’s headline betting markets have remained relatively stable, with Betfair volatility and a small move in Centrebet pushing the aggregate ALP implied probability up 0.7 points to come in at 74.8%. Before we take a look at the Sportsbet individual seat markets, the usual charts come in like this: Over the last two days, there’s […]

Betting Market Tuesday

Over the last 24 hours, the betting market pushed the implied probability of a Labor win nearly 1.5% higher to come in at 75.2% – driven by a 3.3% increase by both IASbet and Sportsbet, with Betfair also moving 0.4% in the same direction. The individual  seat markets currently have Labor sitting around the 77-79 […]

Betting Market Monday

Last night the two agencies offering the best prices had a bit of movement towards the Coalition (making me wonder whether it was advanced knowledge of a good Coalition Newspoll result)- but that washed out of the system pretty quickly. As a result, over the last 24 hours nothing much happened on the markets – […]

Betting Market Sunday

Now we’re at the pointy end of the contest, we move our weekly betting market squiz to daily. Looking at the current prices, implied probabilities, their change since yesterday and all that jazz, we get:

Betting Market Friday

This week saw the betting markets move strongly to Labor by around 4.5% on the aggregate implied probability of victory, with all agencies moving in the same direction. Centrebet moved strongest with an 8.5% ALP boost while Sportingbet moved the least with a 3.5% boost to Labor. The prices and probabilities this week come in […]

Betting Market Friday

Over the last week we’ve seen the implied probabilities of an ALP election win reduce dramatically by an average of 11.4%, which is the biggest weekly movement we’ve seen in the markets for some considerable time.While all agencies moved in the same direction, there as quite a spread with  Sportsbet leading the pack with a […]

Betting Market Friday

This week in the markets saw a move towards the Coalition of around 2% points of implied probability of victory, with Centrebet and Betfair leading the push.  As a result, our all agency aggregate came  in on Labor having a 73.6% implied probability of victory and the Coalition sitting on 26.4%. Before we get to […]

Betting Market Friday

The first week of the campaign saw little movement in the markets, with the change in implied probabilities of ALP victory moving between a 1.7% increase to Labor through to a 1.4% reduction. On our 5 agency aggregate probability, these small movements effectively canceled each other out, keeping the aggregate probability steady. With pretty much […]

Betting Market Friday

This week the betting markets had a bit of a non-consensus moment, with Betfair and Sportingbet moving towards the Coalition, Centrebet moving towards Labor, while Sportsbet and IASbet twiddled their thumbs. As a result, the aggregated implied probability of the five agencies pulled back slightly for a Labor victory from 76.4% to 75.5%. The usual […]