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Carbon Price opinion – the starting gates

Carbon Price opinion – the starting gates

Over the next 12 months, we’ll have more polls on pricing carbon than we can poke a stick at – some more valuable than others –  so it’s probably worth taking a squiz at where public views of carbon pricing sit at the starting gates of what will probably be a bit of a rollercoaster […]

Lowy Poll - climate change and public hypocrisy

Lowy Poll - climate change and public hypocrisy

The Lowy Institute has released their annual Lowy Poll that mostly focuses on various aspects of foreign policy related public opinion. We’ll go through the broader poll a little later on today, but first up it’s worth going through the responses to a set of global warming questions they asked – and in some instances, […]

I'll see you a coward and raise you an idiot.

I'll see you a coward and raise you an idiot.

Rudd’s backflip on the ETS and his unwillingness to fight a double dissolution over the issue makes him a coward. No, it’s true – every color-by-numbers, intellectually lazy hack from Broome to Cockle Creek has told us so over the last few days. You only have to head over to Fox News With Words and […]

Essential Report and Newspoll Part 2

Essential Report and Newspoll Part 2

This week’s Essential Report comes in unchanged in all respects with the primaries running 44/38 to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way. The Greens are on 10 and the broad “Others” are on 8. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1830, giving us an MoE […]

When climate change scepticism changes political opinion

When climate change scepticism changes political opinion

Blue_green in comments in the CPRS polling thread asked: Possum- It would be interesting if you could plot a correlation between ‘against cprs’ and ‘global warming is exaggerated’ for each demographic. I wonder if they are consistent or if some just want another climate policy (just not the CPRS). That is a mighty fine idea! […]

Public Opinion, Global Warming and the CPRS

Public Opinion, Global Warming and the CPRS

Morgan recently released a new poll on their global warming beliefs and CPRS approval series that they’ve been running regularly of late. These polls are phone polls with relatively small sample sizes running between the late 500’s and a 1000 or so, making the MoE’s on them max out between 3 and 5%. As a […]

Nerdy Sunday - When Trends Go Bad

Nerdy Sunday - When Trends Go Bad

We often use the phrase “the trend is your friend” when analysing noisy data, primarily because it’s a pretty good rule of thumb for the type of polling, economic and demographic data we usually deal with round these parts. Yet sometimes, with certain types of data that exhibit autocorrelated random noise, the “trend”, particularly any […]

Andrew Bolt, Knowledge Weight and Flagship Media

Andrew Bolt, Knowledge Weight and Flagship Media

Our good mate Andrew Bolt – that paranoid bloke that reckons you lot might try and stick calculators up his bum – has been a very naughty boy lately. And yes, it involves his special charts 😀 The problem, unfortunately, isn’t a particularly unique one – a lot of this pseudo-statistical arsehattery that gets passed […]

The most important article you'll read about Copenhagen

The most important article you'll read about Copenhagen

Normally after these attempts at multilateral institution building, the first 6 months worth of commentary and descriptions on what actually happened are filled with various forms of self-aggrandising bullshit,at least until one of the relatively few people involved in the clincher moments  decides to spill the beans. This time it came far quicker than usual […]

Data, fiction and politics.

Data, fiction and politics.

I’ve got this interesting piece of data – it’s polling data measuring the proportion of the public that utilised a particular government service in country X in the previous month, and a particularly important government service at that. The polls were taken fortnightly for a period of around 5 years, where the results were seasonally […]