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Election Forecasting

Betting Market Friday

Something we don’t pay much attention to around this place are the various political betting markets – so from now through until the election, we’ll have Betting Market Friday as a regular post. Essentially, what we’ll do is look at the federal election prices from five betting agencies – Centrebet, IASbet, Sportingbet, Betfair and Sportsbet […]

When Big Polling Leads Match Election Results

Antony had a good post over on his blog today about how the current big polling leads Labor enjoys may not end up flowing through to a large election victory. My own view on the subject is that I’m completely and utterly open minded about the prospect – it’s worth explaining why. If we look […]

How voter enrolment changes election outcomes

Last week the Australian Electoral Commission had an interesting media release about the estimated 1.2 million eligible voters that aren’t on the electoral roll.The media release stated: In the continuing search for 1.2 million Australians missing from the electoral roll, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) released information today indicating just who in Australia has the […]

Predicting the Senate

I usually try and stay away from the Senate – primarily because it’s a major cause of psephological brainhurt, but also because there are such enormous amounts of uncertainty involved in which party gets the final 1 or 2 spots in each state, an uncertainty often tied up with micro-party preference deals, resources deployed at […]

Gen Blue – Coalition Mortality and Electoral Decline

The near conclusion of the long running saga called the Coalition’s Demographic Train Wreck. After spending the last year and a half ferreting out every bit of 2007 election polling I could get my hands on, I think we might have – finally – a good set of estimates for the two party preferred vote […]

Nerdy Sunday: Predicting campaign effects

I was pondering over a glass of red the other day whether long term political beliefs have any residual effect from one election to the next? Particularly among swing voters – including those voters that tell pollsters that they will vote for Party A even though they normally and historically vote for Party B If […]

It’s time to rethink political demographics - Part 2

Continuing on from Part 1 (which you’ll really need to read before chewing on this), today we’ll look at an interesting demographic play with young families and the ALP vote at the last election. The standard narrative has it that Labor did well with young families – those Howard battlers out in the urban boonies […]

It's time to rethink political demographics - Part 1

The Parliamentary Library released an interesting little bit of stuff the other day, Population change in Commonwealth electoral divisions, 2006 to 2007. What makes this interesting is the way the data plays out with the data from the 2007 Election. First up let’s do a chart (!!); we’ll plot the ALP TPP swing by electorate […]

Federal Election Simulation!

As some of you may remember, during the US election we ran big monte carlo simulations using Intrade data to try and forecast the result of the Electoral College vote – it was pretty successful all up, predicting 364 EVs when the actual result was 365. But we’ll get into just how it all went […]

Intrade Monday – That Moose is Cooked Edition

Another Monday, another weekly Intrade data round up and it’s pretty much game over. To start with we’ll run through the daily trackers: The Obama surge on the daily timescale seems to have peaked – understandably so and we’ll get to the why’s of that in a minute, but on the weekly timescale it’s been […]