October, 2010

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Bligh looking to remove optional preferential voting

, Oct 27, 2010

Today, the Courier Mail reports that Qld Premier Anna Bligh has asked Attorney-General Cameron Dick to look into whether optional preferential voting at the state level is leading to an increase in the informal vote in Qld – presumably with the view of replacing OPV with the compulsory preferential model we have at Federal elections.  […]

Andrew Leigh’s maiden speech

, Oct 18, 2010

When Andrew Leigh made his move to Parliament, one of the big questions that many of us had was whether Australian economics’ great loss might turn into our great political gain? I think the optimists still outweigh the pessimists by about 2 to 1 (and it’s pretty obvious which side I come down on here!), […]
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Odd things in the Green vote

, Oct 11, 2010

A funny little thing about the Greens vote popped up last week when I was trying to estimate the size of the donkey vote at the recent election. Where the Greens candidates sit on the ballot paper has an impact on the size of the vote they receive, beyond a standard donkey vote. Essentially, the […]
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Did Greens HTV Cards win Labor any seats?

, Oct 04, 2010

The AEC has released the preference distribution data from the election, so it’s worth having a bit of a squiz at the way preferences flowed from the Greens to the ALP, as there’s some interesting little bits in there. To start with, it’s worth looking at the broader picture on the vote side – so […]
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Swings, Margins and Indie Heterogeneity

, Aug 28, 2010

OK, so it’s an odd title, but it’s an odd week! 😛 First up, it’s worth looking at the two party swing toward and away from the ALP that each seat experienced as a function of the notional ALP two party preferred of that seat heading into the election. If we break them down by […]
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Analysing the informal vote

, Aug 25, 2010

Over the last 30 years or so, probably longer, the size and distribution of the informal vote that we see at every election can be largely explained by a handful of variables – with the election on Saturday being no exception. The first of these variables is ballot length – the number of candidates we […]
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Did ALP State govs impact the federal vote?

, Aug 23, 2010

One of the big questions floating around the post-election limbo dance is whether ALP State government and state party parliamentary performance had an impact on the ALP results in the federal election. If we look at the two party preferred margin of the State ALP parties at their most recent poll (all Newspoll here except […]
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Essential Report – Approvals and vote decision

, Jul 27, 2010

This week’s Essential Report comes in unchanged from last week in all respects, with the primaries running 41/39 to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way. The Greens are on 13 and the broad “Others” are on 7. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1747, giving […]
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What size the ALP vote hit from closing rolls early?

, Jul 21, 2010

When Julia Gillard announced August 21 as the election date rather than August 28, one of the consequences was that the electoral roll closed a week earlier than it ordinarily could have – providing very little time for younger voters to get themselves on the roll. As we know, younger voters – especially the 18-24’s […]

August 28 election?

, Jun 17, 2010

On a Fed Dept intranet: Minutes to the Parliamentary Secretary – deadline The Parliamentary Secretary’s Office has requested that the areas provide, by   23 June 2010, all Minutes that require a decision before 19 July 2010. To meet this deadline, Offices should provide any Minutes that require a   decision by the Parliamentary Secretary to ..Parliamentary […]
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Class, voting and broad left demography

, Apr 15, 2010

One of the most historically accurate predictors of the way people vote in Australian elections has always been the notion of “class”. At its most reductionist, working class voters generally support the ALP, owners of capital and employers generally support the Liberal Party and in the post-war years, rural Australia has generally supported anti-Labor candidates […]
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SA Election – Skew not skewered

, Mar 22, 2010

We saw something in the SA election on Saturday night that you just don’t see very often in Australian elections – a major skew in the swing. Often what happens when a swing is on against a government is that there’s a slight skew, where safe government seats swing very slightly more, on average, than […]
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When Big Polling Leads Match Election Results

, Jan 28, 2010

Antony had a good post over on his blog today about how the current big polling leads Labor enjoys may not end up flowing through to a large election victory. My own view on the subject is that I’m completely and utterly open minded about the prospect – it’s worth explaining why. If we look […]

30 Years of Elections in 5 Charts

, Jan 25, 2010

The primary vote of both the Labor Party and the Coalition have been, on average, declining since 1977. But things aren’t what they seem with the Coalition. The Liberal Party component has been flat to rising over the same period: While the National Party component has fallen into a ditch: As a result of the […]

More Higgins Nonsense

, Dec 14, 2009

Anyone else getting sick and tired of the rampant nonsense being peddled about the Higgins by-election result? Just to pick a random perpetrator, Tim Colebatch  – a normally sensible person – thought it would be wise to write some particularly non-sensible things in The Age about what really happened in Higgins. In a rather courageous […]
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Could the polls actually be undercooked for Labor?

, Oct 27, 2009

Something interesting has been popping up in the polling with the two party preferred vote – there is a statistically significant difference between the two party preferred estimate when poll respondents get to allocate preferences compared to the two party preferred estimate when preferences are allocated on the same basis that they were at the […]
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2010 Pendulum

, Oct 24, 2009

Antony has the new pendulum for 2010 over on his site. What I thought was interesting about it was the chunkiness of the swings for seats for each party around the center of the pendulum – say, a 6% uniform swing each way. If we take Labor first and chart the seats they would gain […]
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Generational Voting Power

, Oct 16, 2009

Continuing on from yesterdays post about the historical voting patters of four generations of Australians (Pre-War, Boomers, Gen X and Gen Y) – Kymbos asked in comments about generational voting power. If we use the ABS data for historical population estimates by age, we can figure out the proportion of the electorate (those aged 18 […]
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How voter enrolment changes election outcomes

, Oct 14, 2009

Last week the Australian Electoral Commission had an interesting media release about the estimated 1.2 million eligible voters that aren’t on the electoral roll.The media release stated: In the continuing search for 1.2 million Australians missing from the electoral roll, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) released information today indicating just who in Australia has the […]
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Predicting the Senate

, Sep 14, 2009

I usually try and stay away from the Senate – primarily because it’s a major cause of psephological brainhurt, but also because there are such enormous amounts of uncertainty involved in which party gets the final 1 or 2 spots in each state, an uncertainty often tied up with micro-party preference deals, resources deployed at […]