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Bligh looking to remove optional preferential voting

Bligh looking to remove optional preferential voting

Possum Comitatus October 27, 2010 19 Comments

Today, the Courier Mail reports that Qld Premier Anna Bligh has asked Attorney-General Cameron Dick to look into whether optional preferential voting at the state level is leading to an increase in the informal vote in Qld – presumably with the view of replacing OPV with the compulsory preferential model we have at Federal elections.  […]

Andrew Leigh’s maiden speech

Possum Comitatus October 18, 2010 15 Comments

When Andrew Leigh made his move to Parliament, one of the big questions that many of us had was whether Australian economics’ great loss might turn into our great political gain? I think the optimists still outweigh the pessimists by about 2 to 1 (and it’s pretty obvious which side I come down on here!), […]

Odd things in the Green vote

Odd things in the Green vote

Possum Comitatus October 11, 2010 48 Comments

A funny little thing about the Greens vote popped up last week when I was trying to estimate the size of the donkey vote at the recent election. Where the Greens candidates sit on the ballot paper has an impact on the size of the vote they receive, beyond a standard donkey vote. Essentially, the […]

Did Greens HTV Cards win Labor any seats?

Did Greens HTV Cards win Labor any seats?

Possum Comitatus October 4, 2010 57 Comments

The AEC has released the preference distribution data from the election, so it’s worth having a bit of a squiz at the way preferences flowed from the Greens to the ALP, as there’s some interesting little bits in there. To start with, it’s worth looking at the broader picture on the vote side – so […]

Swings, Margins and Indie Heterogeneity

Swings, Margins and Indie Heterogeneity

Possum Comitatus August 28, 2010 49 Comments

OK, so it’s an odd title, but it’s an odd week! 😛 First up, it’s worth looking at the two party swing toward and away from the ALP that each seat experienced as a function of the notional ALP two party preferred of that seat heading into the election. If we break them down by […]

Analysing the informal vote

Analysing the informal vote

Possum Comitatus August 25, 2010 52 Comments

Over the last 30 years or so, probably longer, the size and distribution of the informal vote that we see at every election can be largely explained by a handful of variables – with the election on Saturday being no exception. The first of these variables is ballot length – the number of candidates we […]

Did ALP State govs impact the federal vote?

Did ALP State govs impact the federal vote?

Possum Comitatus August 23, 2010 56 Comments

One of the big questions floating around the post-election limbo dance is whether ALP State government and state party parliamentary performance had an impact on the ALP results in the federal election. If we look at the two party preferred margin of the State ALP parties at their most recent poll (all Newspoll here except […]

Essential Report – Approvals and vote decision

Essential Report – Approvals and vote decision

Possum Comitatus July 27, 2010 47 Comments

This week’s Essential Report comes in unchanged from last week in all respects, with the primaries running 41/39 to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way. The Greens are on 13 and the broad “Others” are on 7. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1747, giving […]

What size the ALP vote hit from closing rolls early?

What size the ALP vote hit from closing rolls early?

Possum Comitatus July 21, 2010 25 Comments

When Julia Gillard announced August 21 as the election date rather than August 28, one of the consequences was that the electoral roll closed a week earlier than it ordinarily could have – providing very little time for younger voters to get themselves on the roll. As we know, younger voters – especially the 18-24’s […]

August 28 election?

Possum Comitatus June 17, 2010 40 Comments

On a Fed Dept intranet: Minutes to the Parliamentary Secretary – deadline The Parliamentary Secretary’s Office has requested that the areas provide, by   23 June 2010, all Minutes that require a decision before 19 July 2010. To meet this deadline, Offices should provide any Minutes that require a   decision by the Parliamentary Secretary to ..Parliamentary […]