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Penultimate Polls and the Greensurge

Today brings us a full Galaxy in the News Ltd. tabloids and 2/3rds of a Newspoll in The Oz (shakes head). We’ll run through the Newspoll figures tomorrow when the poll is completed. The Galaxy has the Coalition leading on the primaries 41 (down 1)/ 38 (steady), washing out into a two party preferred of […]

Polls and marginal benefit

Recovering from tech failure yesterday, we have a basket of new polls including a Nielsen, a Morgan phone poll and two sets of marginal seat polling – one from Galaxy and one from Newspoll. First up, the all pollster chart: Every pollster has shown an increase for Labor between late July and the first two […]

Rumble in the Rissole

Last night saw a joint Sky News/News Ltd tabloid “town hall” style political shindig at the Rooty Hill RSL Club –  where Abbott and Gillard stated their case for election and answered questions from the floor. There was a lot of debate about the bias or otherwise of the audience, where they appeared much tougher […]

Newspoll and Galaxy Monday

Newspoll (via The Oz) and Galaxy (via the News Ltd tabloids) come in today with identical primaries running 42/38 to the Coalition – but with Newspoll having the ALP leading on the two party preferred by 52/48 while Galaxy has it at 51/49 – suggesting that both pollsters got very close to the 51.5 mark […]

Two Morgans and a Galaxy

Today brings not one, not two, but three new polls on the vote estimates – with a Morgan Phone poll and Galaxy taken Wednesday night and a Morgan face to face taken last weekend. All the results and their respective changes come in like this:

Newspoll and Galaxy -polls vs trends

Two big polls out today – a Galaxy via the News Ltd tabloids and a Newspoll via The Oz. The top line info on the vote estimates come in like this I’m not sure if this Galaxy was taken over the 24th and the 25th, or just the 25th – so we’ll leave a little […]

Galaxy, trust and vote barriers

Last night on Channel Nine news, a Galaxy poll was published that was supposed to be a “bombshell”. It was taken over the period July 17/18, making it the first full post-election announcement poll (today’s Newspoll on the other hand, which we looked at here, would only be 50-65 odd percent taken after the election […]

Galaxy, deserving to win and incumbency.

The first full day of the campaign brings us a Galaxy poll (via the News Ltd tabloids) that was taken on Friday night before the election announcement. The poll had a sample of 800, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.5% mark. The only change in the voting estimates since the last […]

Nielsen, Galaxy and the Gender Gap

Today we have two new polls published – Nielsen via Fairfax (demographic tables here) and Galaxy via the News Ltd tabloids. The vote estimates, sample sizes, MoE’s and changes since the last respective polls (taken immediately after the Gillard ascension) come in like this – with Nielsen data to a decimal place. Nielsen and Galaxy […]

First Gillard Polling

Today brings about the first robust polling of the Gillard era (there were a few not so robust jobbies floating around yesterday in the media  using instapundit online panels – ignore them, they may well have had big sample sizes, but their sampling frame isn’t up to the job required for political polling.) We have […]