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Australian federal election simulations and polling trends


Australian federal election simulations and polling trends

How the mighty fell

One of the more astonishing things about the federal election result is how the ALP managed to destroy such an enormous amount of public goodwill over such a relatively small time frame. To really highlight the drama of it all, it’s worth looking at a couple of charts. Firstly, let’s take every two party preferred […]


What a very odd 24 hours. Today’s Newspoll quarterly shows that the ALP would have won around 81 seats to 66 were an election held during the last three months – a period where Labor polled their lowest in Newspoll in 4 years. Kevin Rudd is now toast, as the ALP has no choice but […]

Leaders attributes and the vote

As you may remember, Essential Report runs a semi-regular set of questions that measure public perceptions on various attributes of political leaders – from positive attributes like Trust and Visionary through to negative attributes like Arrogant and Superficial. Over the last two and a half years, the following question has been asked 6 times about […]

Leadership Polling - a comprehensive rundown

Yesterday both Galaxy and Newspoll released polling on leadership ratings of a Rudd/Gillard head-to-head, while Morgan asked the same with a phone poll late last week. Looking at the three questions, Galaxy asked: Which of the two Labor politicians, Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard, do you believe would be the best choice to be leader […]

When the Worms Turn – The inside info on audience response

You might have seen the health debate yesterday. You may even have been tragic enough to have both Channel Seven and Channel Nine broadcasts on at the same time to compare their respective real-time audience response tracking of the debate – The Pollie Graph for Seven and The Worm for Nine. The first thing you […]

The pitfalls of Better Party To Manage

What started out as an exercise in looking at whether we can see any structural effects of incumbency on the results of “better party/leader to manage” polls over time – whether the act of being in government itself has an impact on these metrics – quickly became something else entirely as the data spoke in […]

Essential Report and Newspoll Part 2

This week’s Essential Report comes in unchanged in all respects with the primaries running 44/38 to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way. The Greens are on 10 and the broad “Others” are on 8. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1830, giving us an MoE […]

Abbott vs. Latham Polling Deathmatch

A few of you have asked about polling comparisons between the early stages of the Latham and Abbott leaderships. While there’s certainly some similarities in the way that each leader had an impact on the polling metrics in their first few poll outings, there’s some considerable differences between the two when it comes to the […]

Turnbull to Abbott – You Bleeping Bleeper that Bleeps.

Turnbull just wrote a post over on his blog which will cause a bit of a shitstorm – effectively accusing Tony Abbott of deliberately lying to the public, among a great many other things. The title: “Time for some straight talking on climate change” sets the scene. Last week we thought that the Liberal Party […]