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Comparing Australian pollsters and their relative partisan leans

How Australian Pollsters lean

Comparing Australian pollsters and their relative partisan leans

How the 2007 election doubled the Greens vote everywhere.

There’s a Victorian state Newspoll out this morning via The Oz that has the Coalition leading the ALP on the primary vote by 40/35, but with the two party preferred running 52/48 the other way. This comes about because the Greens vote is sitting on a high of 19. That’s all good and well, but […]

Newspoll Monday and Trends Update

Today’s Newspoll via The Oz shows little movement, running from a sample of 1693 and giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.4% mark. The vote estimates look like this: You’ll notice that the Coalition dropped a point and the Greens gained one on the primaries, yet the two party preferred result showing […]

Polls and marginal benefit

Recovering from tech failure yesterday, we have a basket of new polls including a Nielsen, a Morgan phone poll and two sets of marginal seat polling – one from Galaxy and one from Newspoll. First up, the all pollster chart: Every pollster has shown an increase for Labor between late July and the first two […]

Newspoll and Galaxy Monday

Newspoll (via The Oz) and Galaxy (via the News Ltd tabloids) come in today with identical primaries running 42/38 to the Coalition – but with Newspoll having the ALP leading on the two party preferred by 52/48 while Galaxy has it at 51/49 – suggesting that both pollsters got very close to the 51.5 mark […]

Newspoll Monday - the trends have it

Today via The Oz comes Newspoll Monday, with a two party result coming in with the  50/50 that we predicted yesterday, suggesting around a 2 point movement to the Coalition over the last week. The vote estimates, change and sample info look like this: As a result, this brings our Pollytrend down to 50.9 on […]

Newspoll and Galaxy -polls vs trends

Two big polls out today – a Galaxy via the News Ltd tabloids and a Newspoll via The Oz. The top line info on the vote estimates come in like this I’m not sure if this Galaxy was taken over the 24th and the 25th, or just the 25th – so we’ll leave a little […]

Newspoll and more gender gaps

There’s three polls to report on today, the “bombshell” Galaxy poll run on the Nine News last night (bit of a fizzer), today’s Newspoll (via The Oz – tables here) and an Essential Report we’ll have this afternoon. The big shock is Newspoll, coming in with the primaries running 42 (steady), 38 (down 2) to […]

The electoral reality of Rudd's last days.

Hidden among the events of Thursday’s spill was Newspoll’s quarterly release of their polling demographic breakdowns between April and June in The Oz. In what can only be described as very convenient timing, this allows us to pool these Newspoll results with the Nieslen results over the same period (plus one  unpublished phone poll I […]

Newspoll and horsefluff

Today’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running with the Coalition down 1 to 40, ALP steady on 35, The Greens are down 1 on 15 while the broad “Others” are up 2 to 10. When this gets 2007 election preference distributions applied to it – as Newspoll does –  it all […]