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How Australian Pollsters lean

How Australian Pollsters lean

Comparing Australian pollsters and their relative partisan leans

Polls and marginal benefit

Polls and marginal benefit

Recovering from tech failure yesterday, we have a basket of new polls including a Nielsen, a Morgan phone poll and two sets of marginal seat polling – one from Galaxy and one from Newspoll. First up, the all pollster chart: Every pollster has shown an increase for Labor between late July and the first two […]

Nielsen Saturday

Nielsen Saturday

This brisk Saturday morning brings us a Nielsen poll via the Fairfax press running from a sample of 1369, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark – the vote estimates, their change since last week’s Nielsen and the pref flows –  broken down into gender and geography to the usual decimal […]

Nielsen poll - the other stuff

Nielsen poll - the other stuff

Yesterday we looked at the voting intention results from this weekend’s Nielsen poll, so today we’ll have a squiz at the rest of it – the usual preferred PM and approvals, plus some questions on the ETS, immigration levels, voting commitment, win expectations and the Glorious Citizens Assembly of the Peoples Republic of Julia. First […]

Nielsen - Thump

Nielsen - Thump

Today brings about a Nielsen that has the tragics spinning with the Coalition hitting the lead on a two party preferred split of 52/48. The poll came from a sample of 1356, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.7% mark. The primary votes broken down into gender and geography as well as […]

Nielsen, Workchoices and the Rudd Effect

Nielsen, Workchoices and the Rudd Effect

Nielsen comes in today via the Fairfax broadsheets with the primaries running 42 (up 3)/ 41 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a 2 point gain to Labor since July 8-10 when the last Nielsen was taken. The Greens are down 1 to 12 […]

Nielsen, Galaxy and the Gender Gap

Nielsen, Galaxy and the Gender Gap

Today we have two new polls published – Nielsen via Fairfax (demographic tables here) and Galaxy via the News Ltd tabloids. The vote estimates, sample sizes, MoE’s and changes since the last respective polls (taken immediately after the Gillard ascension) come in like this – with Nielsen data to a decimal place. Nielsen and Galaxy […]

The electoral reality of Rudd's last days.

The electoral reality of Rudd's last days.

Hidden among the events of Thursday’s spill was Newspoll’s quarterly release of their polling demographic breakdowns between April and June in The Oz. In what can only be described as very convenient timing, this allows us to pool these Newspoll results with the Nieslen results over the same period (plus one  unpublished phone poll I […]

First Gillard Polling

First Gillard Polling

Today brings about the first robust polling of the Gillard era (there were a few not so robust jobbies floating around yesterday in the media  using instapundit online panels – ignore them, they may well have had big sample sizes, but their sampling frame isn’t up to the job required for political polling.) We have […]

Labor and the retreat of Greens preferences

Labor and the retreat of Greens preferences

In yesterday’s post on the latest Nielsen poll, we noted that Greens preferences seem to have been shifting considerably over the last six months. Today we’ll take a closer look at what has been going on. Nielsen do two measures of the two party preferred vote – their headline result (the one reported in the […]