pollytrend
The Primary Dynamic
September 29, 2012 12
The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.
The 2012 State of Play
February 9, 2012 49
Australian federal polling trends and election simulations
How Australian Pollsters lean
November 8, 2011 14
Comparing Australian pollsters and their relative partisan leans
Trend Updates for November
November 8, 2011 7
Latest Australian political polling trends for October
Polling trends – Spring Session Edition
August 16, 2011 19
Australian polling trends for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens
Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government
July 2, 2011 24
Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be […]
New Trends and Gender Shifts
June 5, 2011 15
Plugging all the new polling data of late into our trend system, we find that the medium term deterioration in the Labor government’s two party preferred vote has stabilised out around the 46% mark over the last 6 weeks. A lot of day to day stuff came and went, from budgets to boat people, from […]
First Election Simulation for 2011
April 1, 2011 21
With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]