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Class, voting and broad left demography

Class, voting and broad left demography

One of the most historically accurate predictors of the way people vote in Australian elections has always been the notion of “class”. At its most reductionist, working class voters generally support the ALP, owners of capital and employers generally support the Liberal Party and in the post-war years, rural Australia has generally supported anti-Labor candidates […]

The Coalition and Women Voters

The Coalition and Women Voters

We often hear about how Tony Abbott has a problem with women voters (or rather, how women voters have a problem with Tony Abbott), which even if true, isn’t a particularly new phenomenon to the post-Howard Coalition. Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull both experienced polling problems with women voters at various times during their leadership. […]

Electoral Consequences of Net Censorship

Electoral Consequences of Net Censorship

What are the electoral consequences of net censorship? To sum it up – next to none, at least in terms of sitting ALP members that would be at a decent risk of losing their seats. There will quite possibly be a number of very close contests where, say, 500 people changing their two party vote […]

The Grey Vote: Ageing and Cohort Succession

The Grey Vote: Ageing and Cohort Succession

This is the name of a new academic paper (still in working form) that Aaron Martin and Dr. Juliet Pietsch are currently writing – and they were extraordinarily kind enough to let us have a little bit of a peek before it gets published. The abstract of the paper lays out the broad contents and […]

How voter enrolment changes election outcomes

How voter enrolment changes election outcomes

Last week the Australian Electoral Commission had an interesting media release about the estimated 1.2 million eligible voters that aren’t on the electoral roll.The media release stated: In the continuing search for 1.2 million Australians missing from the electoral roll, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) released information today indicating just who in Australia has the […]

Election Simulation Under New Boundaries

Election Simulation Under New Boundaries

Having run the new quarterly Newspoll figures through the simulation on the old boundaries, it might be time to run them with the new post-redistribution boundaries (thanks Antony Green for the data!) to see the most likely result were an election held in the last three months on our new boundaries for 2010. The results […]

Predicting the Senate

Predicting the Senate

I usually try and stay away from the Senate – primarily because it’s a major cause of psephological brainhurt, but also because there are such enormous amounts of uncertainty involved in which party gets the final 1 or 2 spots in each state, an uncertainty often tied up with micro-party preference deals, resources deployed at […]

Unemployment by Electorate - Part 2

Unemployment by Electorate - Part 2

Just a quick update from Friday’s post on unemployment by electorate – and for those reading this that haven’t seen the previous post, it’s probably worth having a squiz to know what’s going on. I’ve redone the maps of Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne regions in a much easier to understand format. The cross-hatched areas […]

Unemployment by Electorate

Unemployment by Electorate

Here’s something to chew over for the weekend – let’s take the most detailed ABS Labour Force statistics available by geographic region from June 2009 and break that data down into three categories. 1. Where the derived unemployment rate has actually reduced since the last election (yes, as surprising as it might sound, such places […]

The Greens and Electoral Roll Expansion

The Greens and Electoral Roll Expansion

When the ALP recently floated the idea of allowing 16 and 17 year olds to vote, the thing that struck me was, firstly, how so many Greens were in favour of the idea and secondly, how so many Libs opposed it. Being a cynic and believing that even with the cute and cuddly Greens, 90% […]