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Anatomy of a Modern Campaign

Anatomy of a Modern Campaign

Possum ComitatusApr 22, 201320 Comments

One of the biggest jokes politics plays on itself is “secrecy” - secret internal polling that apparently makes public polling wrong, secret campaign tactics that relegate Sun Tzu to

Megapoll - Full Breakdowns

Megapoll - Full Breakdowns

Possum ComitatusApr 10, 201312 Comments

The data and breakdowns from the largest political poll ever conducted in Australia - all focusing on privatisation and Qld

Qld State Polling and Bad Analysis

Qld State Polling and Bad Analysis

Possum ComitatusOct 1, 201210 Comments

How two pollsters showing identical results can deliver two completely different accounts of voter behaviour - why timeliness matters if you want to avoid bad analysis

Introducing the Qld Treasurer

Introducing the Qld Treasurer

Possum ComitatusJul 2, 201233 Comments

Introducing Tim Nicholls, the man who doesn't realise he's the Treasurer

Floods, prices and mortality

Floods, prices and mortality

Possum ComitatusJan 17, 201117 Comments

With the flood waters receding in Queensland - giving us our first real look at the size of the damage involved - it might be worth going back and having a bit of a squiz at what happen

Projecting election results from exit polls

Projecting election results from exit polls

Possum ComitatusApr 14, 2009

Some of you may remember back a few weeks ago early on Qld election night, an Auspoll exit poll was released on Sky Nooz that polled Labor’s 20 most marginal seats. From that result I

Newspoll Tuesday - Qld Edition

Newspoll Tuesday - Qld Edition

Possum ComitatusFeb 24, 20092 Comments

Day 1 of the campaign and we have our first poll - but be warned, the most important thing about this poll is the sample size: 752 people giving us an MoE of 3.6%. This compares to the

QLD Election March 21

QLD Election March 21

Possum ComitatusFeb 23, 200915 Comments

The LNP needs 21 seats (all things being equal) to form government. The swings for seats look like this (using Antony's redistribution estimates) for the practical middle 50 seats there

Qld Election Watch: Day 122

Qld Election Watch: Day 122

Possum ComitatusFeb 23, 20097 Comments

Rule Number 1: “Today will be the day an election is called for Qld!” Rule Number 2: “If it’s not, then come tomorrow see Rule Number 1” –

How to Lose an Election in 27 Easy Steps

Possum ComitatusJan 15, 200910 Comments

With Qld being the next stop for the electoral campaign circus, that fanciful beast The Liberal National Party is off to the same start we've all seen so many times before north of the

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