February, 2012

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The 2012 State of Play

, Feb 09, 2012

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Australian federal polling trends and election simulations
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Wipeout

, Sep 28, 2011

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Australian federal election simulations and polling trends
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Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government

, Jul 02, 2011

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Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be […]
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First Election Simulation for 2011

, Apr 01, 2011

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With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]
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New Election Simulation.

, Aug 18, 2010

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With today’s combined two week Newspoll breakdown released over at The Oz, we can aggregate the results with the last two Nielsens and the JWS Godzilla poll to run some simulations. Ordinarily we make a pooled super sample of all the polls,  weighted by sample size, to get aggregate state results from which to crunch […]
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First campaign election simulation

, Aug 04, 2010

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With the Newspoll release today of a slightly smaller than usual demographic breakdown (n=3437 rather than the usual n=5500+), we can combine them up with the last 2 Nielsen polls and run them through our election simulation – representing the broad period of July 22nd through to August 2nd, with a pooled sample of n=6193. […]
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The electoral reality of Rudd’s last days.

, Jun 28, 2010

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Hidden among the events of Thursday’s spill was Newspoll’s quarterly release of their polling demographic breakdowns between April and June in The Oz. In what can only be described as very convenient timing, this allows us to pool these Newspoll results with the Nieslen results over the same period (plus one  unpublished phone poll I […]
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Election Simulation – Quarter 1 2010

, Apr 09, 2010

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With Newspoll having released its quarterly polling breakdowns, we can now combine them with the Nielsen data for the last three months and  run our election simulation – giving us the most likely result were an election held over the Jan-Mar period and the results matched the polling. While the headline results showed a sharp […]
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Federal Polling in Qld

, Feb 15, 2010

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Today via the Courier Mail comes a Federal poll for Qld showing the primaries running 46/39 to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 51/49 to the Coalition. This comes from a sample size of 800, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.5% mark. At the 2007 election, the […]
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Seats at Risk – Quarter 4 2009

, Jan 04, 2010

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Ever wonder how ‘at risk’ your local member might be? Now that we have the full spectrum of quarterly polling data from Newspoll and Nielsen, not only can we run election simulations, but we can also use those simulation results to take a closer look at which seats would have been most likely to fall […]
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New Year Election Simulation

, Jan 04, 2010

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Over the weekend, Newspoll via The Oz brought us their quarterly demographic breakdowns which you can see in their entirety over here – although beware, that’s an 11MB pdf file. Those Newspoll results cover the period from October through to December, giving us a mega sample on the vote estimates of 8059. We can combine […]
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Election Simulation Under New Boundaries

, Sep 30, 2009

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Having run the new quarterly Newspoll figures through the simulation on the old boundaries, it might be time to run them with the new post-redistribution boundaries (thanks Antony Green for the data!) to see the most likely result were an election held in the last three months on our new boundaries for 2010. The results […]
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Election Simulation – 17 seat ALP gain.

, Jul 03, 2009

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With the new Newspoll quarterly aggregates out, we can combine these State based breakdowns with the breakdowns from the 2 Nieslen polls taken over the same period and run some election simulations to find out what would most likely have happened were an election held last quarter and had results the same as the polling. […]
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Projecting election results from exit polls

, Apr 14, 2009

Some of you may remember back a few weeks ago early on Qld election night, an Auspoll exit poll was released on Sky Nooz that polled Labor’s 20 most marginal seats. From that result I projected that Labor should win between 51 and 53 seats if that poll were correct. I used some simulations and […]
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Polls were Right, MSM were Wrong.

, Mar 23, 2009

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A few things need to be pointed out today, because, frankly, the MSM is filled to brim with absolute horseshit about the reality of the Qld election polling results. Firstly, the polls were not wrong. Journalists and the Commentariat were wrong – the polls were not. Let’s look at the last polls from both Galaxy […]
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ALP Probability of Victory for a Given TPP

, Feb 25, 2009

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Yesterday we had a bit of a squiz at using monte carlo simulations to analyse the probability that a given swing would produce some number of seats for the ALP. Today we can go one further and use this same simulation framework to look at the probability of the ALP gaining the 45 seats it […]
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First Qld Election Simulation

, Feb 24, 2009

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Since we now have an up to date poll for the Qld election, albeit one with a relatively small sample size, we can start to do some monte carlo simulations to work out the probabilities of a given party gaining a given number of seats were that poll to come true on election day. So […]
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Newspoll Quarterly – Election Simulation

, Dec 13, 2008

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With our new quarterly Newspoll data we can get a bit of an idea of what it would mean were an election held in the last 3 months that produced results the same as the Quarterly Newspoll. It uses a monte carlo simulation to run 10,000 hypothetical elections based on this Newspoll data where the […]
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Federal Polling Results by State vs. Reality

, Dec 10, 2008

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We are expecting the latest quarterly Newspoll demographic and geographical breakdown to be released any day now, so I thought it might be worth having a look at the history of these polls vs actual election results. If we take the final aggregated poll released by Newspoll for the 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2007 election […]
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Federal Election Simulation!

, Nov 26, 2008

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As some of you may remember, during the US election we ran big monte carlo simulations using Intrade data to try and forecast the result of the Electoral College vote – it was pretty successful all up, predicting 364 EVs when the actual result was 365. But we’ll get into just how it all went […]