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When Wholes Are Less Than Sums of the Parts

When Wholes Are Less Than Sums of the Parts

Possum Comitatus July 1, 2013 14 Comments

Headline national two party preferred results are clouding the dynamics and reality of what is happening at the state level - where elections are won and lost

Trends, The Horserace and random numbers

Trends, The Horserace and random numbers

Possum Comitatus November 11, 2012 11 Comments

Today we look at latest polling trends, the timing issues of the ALP carbon tax recovery and big analysis of how most of Australia’s polling and political commentary is based on random numbers.

What if?

Possum Comitatus August 30, 2010 130 Comments

Inspired by a weird little exchange on Twitter where I asked “I wonder how different things would have been if John Watkins was made NSW Premier after Bob Carr?”, to which @BronwynHinz replied “I wonder how different things would have been if John Hewson beat Paul Keating in 1993 and Howard never became PM” – […]

Election Day Mega Simulation

Election Day Mega Simulation

Possum Comitatus August 21, 2010 24 Comments

With all the pollsters in, we can finally run our final election day mega-simulation – and boy is it a close one! Not only does this simulation use our usual quasi-dependency framework (where we don’t treat seats as independent events), but we’ve also anchored seats together within each state on the basis of capital city […]

The Polls of Election Day

The Polls of Election Day

Possum Comitatus August 21, 2010 17 Comments

A big wad of new polling comes in today as all the pollsters vie for bragging rights of being the most accurate – which is pretty funny in itself since the pollster that ultimately ends up being closest to the actual election result does so purely through chance and chance alone. But far from be […]

Possum needs a job!

Possum Comitatus August 19, 2010 73 Comments

After the election, I plan to seriously de-complicate my life. The time required to run this blog, particularly the data maintenance and background analysis that feeds into producing the actual content of the posts at Pollytics, is something that most of you folks thankfully never really get to see  – sausage making is never a […]

Betting Market Monday

Betting Market Monday

Possum Comitatus August 16, 2010 18 Comments

Last night the two agencies offering the best prices had a bit of movement towards the Coalition (making me wonder whether it was advanced knowledge of a good Coalition Newspoll result)- but that washed out of the system pretty quickly. As a result, over the last 24 hours nothing much happened on the markets – […]

A Lazy Possums Catch Up and Open Thread.

A Lazy Possums Catch Up and Open Thread.

Possum Comitatus July 30, 2010 34 Comments

I’ve been a little busy of late (including completely missing yesterday through a bourbon hazed birthday)  and have neglected some questions that were asked by you folks in earlier threads – so rather than go back and chase them down when they probably no longer have anyone actually reading them, it might be better if […]

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

Possum Comitatus June 29, 2010 34 Comments

Since our last roundup, we’ve had another Galaxy, a Newspoll and an Essential Report come into the field. The Galaxy was taken on June 25, 1 day after their first poll and showing identical results for the major parties, and a 1 point gain to the Greens at the expense of a 1 point drop […]

Julia moves the markets

Julia moves the markets

Possum Comitatus June 25, 2010 13 Comments

Yesterday’s historic spill had quite an impact on the election betting markets, with the money moving towards Labor considerably. However, it all get’s a little complicated as IASbet closed their election book and hasn’t yet reopened, Sportingbet and Sportsbet both appeared to open new books where prices quickly adjusted once the punters came in- while […]