Menu
Scroll to top

Voting behaviour

Class, voting and broad left demography

Class, voting and broad left demography

One of the most historically accurate predictors of the way people vote in Australian elections has always been the notion of “class”. At its most reductionist, working class voters generally support the ALP, owners of capital and employers generally support the Liberal Party and in the post-war years, rural Australia has generally supported anti-Labor candidates […]

Gen Blue – Coalition Mortality and Electoral Decline

Gen Blue – Coalition Mortality and Electoral Decline

The near conclusion of the long running saga called the Coalition’s Demographic Train Wreck. After spending the last year and a half ferreting out every bit of 2007 election polling I could get my hands on, I think we might have – finally – a good set of estimates for the two party preferred vote […]

Rudd vs Howard at 17 months

Rudd vs Howard at 17 months

Another quarter has passed, so it’s probably time we updated our Howard vs. Rudd polling comparisons, where we look at how the various polling metrics lined up for both the Howard and Rudd governments at the same comparable “X month in government” period. A new addition this time is the primary vote, so we may […]

Turnbull no Ladies Man

Turnbull no Ladies Man

While the Coalition might be in a sizable political funk at the moment, outside of his party room, Turnbull really has only one big weakness – female voters. To highlight the size of the Coalition’s female voter problem, it’s interesting to look at the trends of the polling estimates in three distinct periods – the […]

Does Labor get a bounce when Parliament sits?

Does Labor get a bounce when Parliament sits?

I keep hearing ditties about Labor getting a bounce in the polls when Parliament sits, with Jack the Insider over at The Oz being the latest, to wit: One of the quirkier patterns in the results of the past 17 months is that Labor gets a bounce during Parliamentary sittings while the Coalition does better […]

The Oz Political Mirror

The Oz Political Mirror

Over at The Oz there’s a pretty funny Editorial, where yet again the owners of Newspoll are getting all confused about the reality of their own product – seemingly now choosing to ignore everything it has, or has ever had, to say. The first line of the article sets the scene: The next election is […]

Nerdy Sunday: Predicting campaign effects

Nerdy Sunday: Predicting campaign effects

I was pondering over a glass of red the other day whether long term political beliefs have any residual effect from one election to the next? Particularly among swing voters – including those voters that tell pollsters that they will vote for Party A even though they normally and historically vote for Party B If […]

It’s time to rethink political demographics - Part 2

It’s time to rethink political demographics - Part 2

Continuing on from Part 1 (which you’ll really need to read before chewing on this), today we’ll look at an interesting demographic play with young families and the ALP vote at the last election. The standard narrative has it that Labor did well with young families – those Howard battlers out in the urban boonies […]

Newspoll Quarterly - The Whole Poll

Newspoll Quarterly - The Whole Poll

The latest quarterly Newspoll breakdown has been released today, so we’ll plug all of the data in from these quarterly polls to give us time series charts going back to the beginning of 2007. (just click the charts to expand) ALP Primary Vote by State and Demographic Coalition Primary Vote by State and Demographic

Newspoll Tuesday - Very Bad Things for the Libs Edition

Newspoll Tuesday - Very Bad Things for the Libs Edition

Another Tuesday, another Newspoll – this time showing both major’s down 1 in the primary for an ALP lead of 44/37, washing into a two party preferred of 56/44 unchanged from a fortnight ago. To start with we’ll run through a chart dump of all the polling stuff fit to print: