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A tale of two majorities

With Alex Somlyay cutting a deal with Labor to become deputy Speaker – giving the government support for no confidence bills and budget supply as part of the agreement, but retaining his right to vote on legislation – we end up with a tale of two majorities on the floor of the House. The first […]

Cost Benefit delusions of the NBN

Cost Benefit delusions of the NBN

Hands up if you’re a media commentator that has demanded the government undertake a cost benefit analysis (CBA) of the National Broadband Network? Keep your hand up if you have any idea at all about how to actually do one? If we were in a large hall right now filled with the nations media chirpers […]

Want to double average income in 4 years?

Want to double average income in 4 years?

For that’s exactly what happened in the WA town of Ravensthorpe between the 2003/04 and 2007/08 financial years – driven by the construction and opening of the BHP Ravensthorpe nickel mine. Sadly for the residents of Ravensthorpe, the mine was mothballed shortly after opening as a result of weak nickel prices – but it highlights […]

Let the Great Unhinging begin

Let the Great Unhinging begin

With two country independents backing Gillard, the Labor party will now pass the only threshold needed in Australia to form government – a majority on the floor of House. There is no other test, there is no other requisite, there is no other qualification needed to control the Treasury benches. But this constitutional reality will […]

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Politics, elections and piffle plinking

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What if?

Inspired by a weird little exchange on Twitter where I asked “I wonder how different things would have been if John Watkins was made NSW Premier after Bob Carr?”, to which @BronwynHinz replied “I wonder how different things would have been if John Hewson beat Paul Keating in 1993 and Howard never became PM” – […]

Swings, Margins and Indie Heterogeneity

Swings, Margins and Indie Heterogeneity

OK, so it’s an odd title, but it’s an odd week! 😛 First up, it’s worth looking at the two party swing toward and away from the ALP that each seat experienced as a function of the notional ALP two party preferred of that seat heading into the election. If we break them down by […]

Analysing the informal vote

Analysing the informal vote

Over the last 30 years or so, probably longer, the size and distribution of the informal vote that we see at every election can be largely explained by a handful of variables – with the election on Saturday being no exception. The first of these variables is ballot length – the number of candidates we […]

Did ALP State govs impact the federal vote?

Did ALP State govs impact the federal vote?

One of the big questions floating around the post-election limbo dance is whether ALP State government and state party parliamentary performance had an impact on the ALP results in the federal election. If we look at the two party preferred margin of the State ALP parties at their most recent poll (all Newspoll here except […]

Now THIS is how you do news

Holy animated Australian election news from Taiwan, Batman! [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQ_s6V1Kv6A[/youtube]

Election Day Mega Simulation

Election Day Mega Simulation

With all the pollsters in, we can finally run our final election day mega-simulation – and boy is it a close one! Not only does this simulation use our usual quasi-dependency framework (where we don’t treat seats as independent events), but we’ve also anchored seats together within each state on the basis of capital city […]