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Look Ma, No Possum!

Well not quite, but I’m heading out to the boonies for a holiday so there will be less Possum over the next 2-3 weeks, depending on the joys of rural internet access.There will be updates once or twice a week. Apologies for the slack comment responses over the last few days, I’ve been flat out […]

Pollycide Part 3 – The Verification.

Continuing on from Pollycide 1 where we used various weights derived from the quarterly Newspoll data to give us some experimental 2 party preferred results to show us the type of seats that would have likely changed hands in a July election, and following on from Pollycide 2 where we then used some linear programming […]

Swings for Seats – National and State graphs

Swings for Seats – National and State graphs

I’ve broken the Mackerras Pendulum down into national and state based swing graphs.The way to read them is like before, choose a swing on the vertical axis, trace it across until it hits the swing line, and then trace down to the horizontal axis to find the seats that the ALP would win or lose […]

Possum Feeders Alert

This is for those folks that read the site by feeds.The two last articles Pollycide Part 1 and 2 have been rewritten to more accurately reflect what I was doing and what it means and how it all works. For those reading this via a browser… Move on, nothing to see here 😉

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Politics, elections and piffle plinking

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Pollycide 2 – Draft Numbers

This article has been rewritten as well to hook more coherently into Part 1. OK folks, we have the first draft of the numbers on the trends we highlighted earlier in Pollycide Part 1. If you haven’t read it, I suggest you do. The way these were calculated was kind of complicated but used a […]

Pollycide Part 1

I’ve completely rewritten this article to make it more coherent and reflective of what I was trying to say rather than making it look like the government was going to be nailed with a 70 seat loss. Yesterdays attempt was appalling gibberish that confused everyone including myself.So if you’ve read this before – it’s now […]

What’s a swing worth?

What’s a swing worth?

Just a quick nifty little graph today based on the Mackerras Pendulum.Click on it to blow it up. What it shows is how many seats the ALP would win or lose at the election for a given uniform swing. The way to read the graph is simple, pick a swing on the left hand side, […]

What’s a swing worth?

What’s a swing worth?

Just a quick nifty little graph today based on the Mackerras Pendulum.Click on it to blow it up. What it shows is how many seats the ALP would win or lose at the election for a given uniform swing. The way to read the graph is simple, pick a swing on the left hand side, […]

What’s a swing worth?

What’s a swing worth?

Just a quick nifty little graph today based on the Mackerras Pendulum.Click on it to blow it up. What it shows is how many seats the ALP would win or lose at the election for a given uniform swing. The way to read the graph is simple, pick a swing on the left hand side, […]

Play it, Sam. Play ‘As Polls Goes By’.

Yes, it’s another poll and another cheesy movie headline, but this time it’s best summed up by the famous misquote of this line from Casablanca: “Play it again Sam”. The latest ACNielson poll in the Fairfax papers is the same old song that’s been playing over and over again since December. ALP primary vote stuck […]