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Play it, Sam. Play ‘As Polls Goes By’.

Yes, it’s another poll and another cheesy movie headline, but this time it’s best summed up by the famous misquote of this line from Casablanca: “Play it again Sam”. The latest ACNielson poll in the Fairfax papers is the same old song that’s been playing over and over again since December. ALP primary vote stuck […]

Play it, Sam. Play ‘As Polls Goes By’.

Yes, it’s another poll and another cheesy movie headline, but this time it’s best summed up by the famous misquote of this line from Casablanca: “Play it again Sam”. The latest ACNielson poll in the Fairfax papers is the same old song that’s been playing over and over again since December. ALP primary vote stuck […]

Margin of Terror 2 – The Dismembering

Continuing on from Margin of Terror, let us combine these last two glorious Newspolls, the quarterly demographic Newspoll and the quarterly marginal and safe seat Newspoll to give us a very rough idea of the seats that would be in danger of falling with these enormous swings. The following table was constructed by first dividing […]

Margin of terror!

Margin of terror!

A new Newspoll today, this time marginal seat polling. You can see it over in The Oz. To start off, Newspoll considers seats held with a margin of 6% or less as “marginal”. I’m going to use 4 data points. The 2004 Election, Jul-Sep 2006, Oct-Nov 2006 and Jan-Mar 2007. Let’s look at the most […]

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Politics, elections and piffle plinking

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As God is my Newspoll, I’ll never be hungry again!

As God is my Newspoll, I’ll never be hungry again!

What a whopper of a Newspoll! Quartely data broken down by State, capital city vs. non capital city, age and gender. There’s plenty to look at here, but over the next few days I’ll try to throw up some of the more interesting things that don’t get the attention they probably deserve. So for todays […]

As God is my Newspoll, I’ll never be hungry again!

As God is my Newspoll, I’ll never be hungry again!

What a whopper of a Newspoll! Quartely data broken down by State, capital city vs. non capital city, age and gender. There’s plenty to look at here, but over the next few days I’ll try to throw up some of the more interesting things that don’t get the attention they probably deserve. So for todays […]

As God is my Newspoll, I’ll never be hungry again!

As God is my Newspoll, I’ll never be hungry again!

What a whopper of a Newspoll! Quartely data broken down by State, capital city vs. non capital city, age and gender. There’s plenty to look at here, but over the next few days I’ll try to throw up some of the more interesting things that don’t get the attention they probably deserve. So for todays […]

Poll Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Metrics

Poll Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Metrics

Over in The Oz, Newspoll CEO Martin O’Shannessy writes: “I was stimulated to consider whether Dennis Shanahan was right when he interpreted the turnaround in John Howard’s better prime minister rating as something more than merely encouraging. How could this be a turning point in the campaign if voter intention has not moved in spite […]

John Howard: Peak Rabbit?

We’ve all heard of “peak oil”, that point in time when oil production peaks, after which it becomes more expensive and simply more difficult to get hold of. Put simply, the bang you get for your buck starts to decline. Has John Howard reached Peak Rabbit? Not that long ago in a time when awful […]

Analysing the Poll Bias: Morgan vs. Newspoll Part II

Continuing on from Part I, where we found that Morgan does show higher primary vote estimates compared to Newspoll for the ALP and lower estimates for the Coalition, let’s move onto the question of “by how much?” First up, let us compare the aggregate monthly primary vote estimates for the ALP and the Coalition that […]