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Analysing the Poll Bias: Morgan vs. Newspoll Part I

There’s a lot of Hoo Har in the punditry over the differences between Morgan and Newspoll results. So let’s take an actual look at the differences between the two, and the size of the differences that are evident at different primary vote levels for the ALP and the Coalition. For this, I’m using Newspoll and […]

Modelling the Howard Governments Primary Vote Swing

Modelling the Howard Governments Primary Vote Swing

The above graph measures the primary vote swing of the Howard Government since its inception in 1996.The way it works is quite simple, each of the dashed vertical lines represents an election. The blue line represents how far away the governments’ primary vote is from the primary vote it received at the election most recent […]

IPDI and the Primary Vote Redux.

Over in The Oz, George Megalogenis writes, “THE existential divide between real and imagined financial stress can decide the coming election. Well-off Australians can be convinced to toss out the Government on the false assumption that their living standards have gone backwards, whether through the spectres of Work Choices, interest rates or climate change.” He’s […]

Determining the Swinging Voter and Their Behaviour

Determining the Swinging Voter and Their Behaviour

If we look at the primary votes of the parties over the last 20 years, it becomes pretty clear that there are a certain amount of voters that support a given party regardless of how that party is behaving. The Coalition for instance never gets below 35 in Newspoll for the primary vote. It has […]

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Politics, elections and piffle plinking

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Time Trends and Primary Votes

If we look at the Newspoll primary vote level of the three political blocks; the ALP, the Coalition and the Minor Party+Undecided group and apply a quadratic time trend to that vote of the type:   We get some very interesting results. The above graph measures the time trend for the Minors+Undecideds group. The size […]

Primary Vote movements and Shocks 1999-2007

Primary Vote movements and Shocks 1999-2007

The above graph is fairly self explanatory. On the left hand side we have the primary vote levels for the two major parties, and on the right we have the minor + undecided vote level.The grey dashed lines are the general elections.  The horizontal dashed blue line represents 43% which is the rough primary vote […]

How Important was the Ryan By-election?

I think that says it all.

Leader Dissatisfaction and the Minor Party/Undecided Vote.

This caught my eye the other day. The red line is the net leader dissatisfaction value given by the PM dissatisfaction level minus the Opposition leaders dissatisfaction level as determined by Newspoll. The black line is the minor party primary vote and the undecideds also given by Newspoll. Between 1996 and the Ryan by-election, the […]

Election Prediction Model 1 Update

Here’s what it means and how it works for those that dont know. The June Newspoll data rolled in, was fed into the model and not much changed. The predicted ALP primary vote for the election reduced from 45.6 in May to 44.54 in June and the predicted Coalition primary vote increased from 39.7 in […]

ALP Victory Index Update

Heres what it is and how it works for those that dont know. The drop in the ALP primary support from 52 to 46, combined with the 7 point shaving from the net satisfaction ratings for Rudd (which is Opposition leader satisfaction – dissatisfaction) have dropped the index by 3.15 points. The big hit came […]