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Into the Swing of Things Part II

Following on from Part One, which looked at the primary vote swing history of all governments going back to December 1985, we now move on to the Opposition primary vote swing so that we can eventually combine the two to pull out some interesting voter behaviour which has some pretty chunky implications for the forthcoming […]

Into the Swing of Things

The above graph is the swing in the primary vote of the government. What it shows is the difference between the governments primary vote as estimated by Newspoll each month and the governments primary vote at the previous election. A few things stand out. Firstly, the dramatic effect that One Nation had on the Coalitions […]

ALP Victory Index

ALP Victory Index

This index represents whether the ALP would have won an election were it held at any time since December 1985.If the ALP score is above zero, it would have one, if it was below zero it would have lost. The elections are shown on the graph, as is an assumed date of November for a […]

Satisfaction Guaranteed – But not for the Primary Vote

Satisfaction just aint what it used to be for the government. Once upon a time the net satisfaction for the government (which is the PMs satisfaction level minus his dissatisfaction level as determined by Newpoll) used to be a driving force behind the primary vote –but alas, something happened after the 2001 election that completely […]

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Politics, elections and piffle plinking

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A tale of two primaries

The above graph is the primary votes of each party in the 12 months leading up to the election as determined by Newspoll. This assumes of course that Howard will call an election in November. But what about the claims that Labor always does this – they get ahead and then Howard reels them in […]

Election Prediction Model 1

Election Prediction Model 1

I plan to have 3 or 4 election prediction models by the first few days into the campaign and as we approach I’ll release them in draft form and continually make modifications as Judgement Day nears. Some will be pure economics, some will be pure opinion polls, some a mix and one will be out […]

Why Howard is rooted in one simple graph

Why Howard is rooted in one simple graph

What this graph highlights is the Oppositions primary vote as determined by Newspoll and the percentage of household disposable income that goes towards interest payments from 1986 to today.Notice how they move together? Their intimacy is fundamentally important to the electoral fortunes of both parties at the coming election. There are three things that individually […]

Askimet got shirty

If your comments were lost, sorry about that folks.The Askimet anti-spam filter hasn’t been taking its meds.

A real Murray Darling Water Plan

This whole back of the envelope, “lets piss $10 billion up the wall on the Murray without having a clue what we’re doing” business is…welll. Words don’t do justice to the broad general stupidity of it. Let’s create a real Murray Darling water plan that deals with appropriate allocation, prevents over-allocation, guarantees that water flows […]

Farmers Dog Update

Some of you may have heard the story of my 68 year old farming neighbour. We got talking about Howard a month or so back and he said (quote): “I had a dog like Howard once, you wouldn’t trust it as far as you could kick it but it rounded up the cattle. Then it […]