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Todays music to blog by archive

This is where I’m going to stick all the previous Todays Music to Blog By links.So if you missed one, or forgot the name of one of them, this is where you’ll find them. Britt Black: Dead Vanity: The Halo Friendlies The Eyeliners The Cocktail Slippers Tsunami Bomb The Dollyrots The Donnas The Wreckers Miranda […]

Beltway Theory or JTSAU?

  Paul Kelly tells us that there are duelling banjo’s realities in the electorate, there are he tells us, “inside the beltway” theories suggesting that the government must win because the Canberra press gallery says so the economy is so good, and there is the “outside the beltway” shmucks…. that’d be you and me, who […]

Leading Vote Indicators

Leading Vote Indicators

Could the ratio of total interest payments to disposable income have become a leading indicator of the government primary vote? Below the governments primary vote is on the left axis, the ratio of interest payment to disposable income as a percentage is on the right axis as an inverse scale and the interest payments to […]

Budgets bounce like dead cats

I thought I’d use the newspoll results back to 1985 to see if the journo cliche of choice come May – “the budget bounce” was nothing more than a fantasy driven by people that have nothing better to say. Surprise surpise, that’s the case. So I also tested the excuse of choice for journo’s and […]

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Politics, elections and piffle plinking

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Regression model for the coming election

    After gathering together the newspoll data from 1985 to the present and aggregating those into a monthly series, I thought I’d build a quick election model regression.The series used are a mix of newspoll series and economic series sourced from the RBA.These were: GOVPRIMARY: The primary vote for the government according to the […]