Menu
Scroll to top
Topic: ALP
First Election Simulation for 2011

First Election Simulation for 2011

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]

Carbon Price opinion – the starting gates

Carbon Price opinion – the starting gates

Over the next 12 months, we’ll have more polls on pricing carbon than we can poke a stick at – some more valuable than others –  so it’s probably worth taking a squiz at where public views of carbon pricing sit at the starting gates of what will probably be a bit of a rollercoaster […]

How the mighty fell

How the mighty fell

One of the more astonishing things about the federal election result is how the ALP managed to destroy such an enormous amount of public goodwill over such a relatively small time frame. To really highlight the drama of it all, it’s worth looking at a couple of charts. Firstly, let’s take every two party preferred […]

Penultimate Polls and the Greensurge

Penultimate Polls and the Greensurge

Today brings us a full Galaxy in the News Ltd. tabloids and 2/3rds of a Newspoll in The Oz (shakes head). We’ll run through the Newspoll figures tomorrow when the poll is completed. The Galaxy has the Coalition leading on the primaries 41 (down 1)/ 38 (steady), washing out into a two party preferred of […]

Newspoll and Galaxy Monday

Newspoll and Galaxy Monday

Newspoll (via The Oz) and Galaxy (via the News Ltd tabloids) come in today with identical primaries running 42/38 to the Coalition – but with Newspoll having the ALP leading on the two party preferred by 52/48 while Galaxy has it at 51/49 – suggesting that both pollsters got very close to the 51.5 mark […]

Nielsen, Workchoices and the Rudd Effect

Nielsen, Workchoices and the Rudd Effect

Nielsen comes in today via the Fairfax broadsheets with the primaries running 42 (up 3)/ 41 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a 2 point gain to Labor since July 8-10 when the last Nielsen was taken. The Greens are down 1 to 12 […]

Campaign Trend Estimates – the starting blocks

Campaign Trend Estimates – the starting blocks

The last week gave us a big bag full of polls containing a substantial amount of variation in the results – so today we’ll update our Pollytrend estimates to try and look through that noise to pick up any underlying movements in the true value of public opinion, and also giving us an estimate of […]

Essential Report, voting issues and the values card

Essential Report, voting issues and the values card

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 41 (steady)/ 39 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – unchanged since last week. The Greens are steady on 13, while the broad “Others” are down 1 to 5. This comes from a rolling two […]

Newspoll and more gender gaps

Newspoll and more gender gaps

There’s three polls to report on today, the “bombshell” Galaxy poll run on the Nine News last night (bit of a fizzer), today’s Newspoll (via The Oz – tables here) and an Essential Report we’ll have this afternoon. The big shock is Newspoll, coming in with the primaries running 42 (steady), 38 (down 2) to […]

Galaxy, deserving to win and incumbency.

Galaxy, deserving to win and incumbency.

The first full day of the campaign brings us a Galaxy poll (via the News Ltd tabloids) that was taken on Friday night before the election announcement. The poll had a sample of 800, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.5% mark. The only change in the voting estimates since the last […]