Topic archives: Australian Politics

The Primary Dynamic

The Primary Dynamic

September 29, 2012 12

The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.

The 2012 State of Play

The 2012 State of Play

February 9, 2012 49

Australian federal polling trends and election simulations

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

August 16, 2011 19

Australian polling trends for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government

July 2, 2011 24

Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be […]

New Trends and Gender Shifts

New Trends and Gender Shifts

June 5, 2011 15

Plugging all the new polling data of late into our trend system, we find that the medium term deterioration in the Labor government’s two party preferred vote has stabilised out around the 46% mark over the last 6 weeks. A lot of day to day stuff came and went, from budgets to boat people, from […]

First Election Simulation for 2011

First Election Simulation for 2011

April 1, 2011 21

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]

Crashes and Rebounds

Crashes and Rebounds

March 22, 2011 18

Time for a polling trends update. First up, the broad sweep. Plugging all the latest polling data fit to print into our system, this is how the two party preferred Pollytrend has changed. We see a relatively sharp downturn for the government starting in late February, bottoming out around the second week of March, before […]

The trends for February’s ends

The trends for February’s ends

February 25, 2011 18

Now that a Morgan phone poll has been released, we have a complete set of polls making up a single polling cycle for the first time this year.  Since some of these buggers have spent a fair bit of time in the festive season wilderness, it’s probably worth taking a look at how they’ve all […]

The Trends Are Back.

The Trends Are Back.

February 12, 2011 31

“The time has come”, the Walrus said, “to talk of many things” – but we’ll start with our new polling trend measures. You may remember that last term we had two trend measures – the all pollster trend (which was an aggregation of the results of every pollster) and our phone pollster trend (which did […]

A comprehensive look at what we think of our health system

A comprehensive look at what we think of our health system

December 21, 2010 32

Last month, the Menzies Centre for Health Policy released a health survey where they teamed up with The Nous Group to measure Australian perceptions of our health system. It was a telephone poll with a sample of 1201, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3% mark. A fairly broad range of questions […]

Analysing the informal vote

Analysing the informal vote

August 25, 2010 52

Over the last 30 years or so, probably longer, the size and distribution of the informal vote that we see at every election can be largely explained by a handful of variables – with the election on Saturday being no exception. The first of these variables is ballot length – the number of candidates we […]

Did ALP State govs impact the federal vote?

Did ALP State govs impact the federal vote?

August 23, 2010 56

One of the big questions floating around the post-election limbo dance is whether ALP State government and state party parliamentary performance had an impact on the ALP results in the federal election. If we look at the two party preferred margin of the State ALP parties at their most recent poll (all Newspoll here except […]

Headline Betting Market Friday

Headline Betting Market Friday

August 20, 2010 35

Today’s headline betting markets – like clockwork mind you-  show a run towards the Coalition with the five agency aggregate implied probability of Labor victory falling from 74.8% to 69.6%. Right about now, it’s worth taking a squiz at the headline Centrebet market probabilities for ALP victory over this campaign, overlaid against what occurred in […]

Penultimate Polls and the Greensurge

Penultimate Polls and the Greensurge

August 20, 2010 53

Today brings us a full Galaxy in the News Ltd. tabloids and 2/3rds of a Newspoll in The Oz (shakes head). We’ll run through the Newspoll figures tomorrow when the poll is completed. The Galaxy has the Coalition leading on the primaries 41 (down 1)/ 38 (steady), washing out into a two party preferred of […]

Betting Markets and the run to certainty

Betting Markets and the run to certainty

August 19, 2010 24

Today’s headline betting markets have remained relatively stable, with Betfair volatility and a small move in Centrebet pushing the aggregate ALP implied probability up 0.7 points to come in at 74.8%. Before we take a look at the Sportsbet individual seat markets, the usual charts come in like this: Over the last two days, there’s […]

Lateral Economics – Stimulus partially pays for itself

Lateral Economics – Stimulus partially pays for itself

August 19, 2010 43

Yesterday, Lateral Economics released a piece of research that looked at some of the dynamics of the stimulus package as it flowed through the economy – particularly in terms of how that stimulus generated tax receipts for the government through the employment it supported, employment that wouldn’t have otherwise existed without the stimulus package. It’s […]

New Election Simulation.

New Election Simulation.

August 18, 2010 43

With today’s combined two week Newspoll breakdown released over at The Oz, we can aggregate the results with the last two Nielsens and the JWS Godzilla poll to run some simulations. Ordinarily we make a pooled super sample of all the polls,  weighted by sample size, to get aggregate state results from which to crunch […]

Holy Godzilla Polls Batman

Holy Godzilla Polls Batman

August 18, 2010 50

Out of today’s Fairfax press comes the results of the JWS Research poll (full results here) we’ve all been hearing so much about. With a total sample size of 28,000, (no you didn’t read that wrong, twenty eight thousand!)  some of you folks would have either been polled yourself last Saturday and Sunday, or know […]

Essential Report bucks the trend

Essential Report bucks the trend

August 17, 2010 19

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the Coalition leading on the primaries 44 (up 2)/ 39 (down 2), washing out into a two party preferred of 51/49 to Labor – a 1 point gain to the Coalition since last week. The Greens are steady on 10, while the broad “Others” are down 1 to […]

Betting Market Monday

Betting Market Monday

August 16, 2010 18

Last night the two agencies offering the best prices had a bit of movement towards the Coalition (making me wonder whether it was advanced knowledge of a good Coalition Newspoll result)- but that washed out of the system pretty quickly. As a result, over the last 24 hours nothing much happened on the markets – […]