The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.
Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be […]
Plugging all the new polling data of late into our trend system, we find that the medium term deterioration in the Labor government’s two party preferred vote has stabilised out around the 46% mark over the last 6 weeks. A lot of day to day stuff came and went, from budgets to boat people, from […]
With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]
Time for a polling trends update. First up, the broad sweep. Plugging all the latest polling data fit to print into our system, this is how the two party preferred Pollytrend has changed. We see a relatively sharp downturn for the government starting in late February, bottoming out around the second week of March, before […]
Now that a Morgan phone poll has been released, we have a complete set of polls making up a single polling cycle for the first time this year. Since some of these buggers have spent a fair bit of time in the festive season wilderness, it’s probably worth taking a look at how they’ve all […]
“The time has come”, the Walrus said, “to talk of many things” – but we’ll start with our new polling trend measures. You may remember that last term we had two trend measures – the all pollster trend (which was an aggregation of the results of every pollster) and our phone pollster trend (which did […]
Last month, the Menzies Centre for Health Policy released a health survey where they teamed up with The Nous Group to measure Australian perceptions of our health system. It was a telephone poll with a sample of 1201, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3% mark. A fairly broad range of questions […]