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Tag archives: Australian Politics

The Primary Dynamic

The Primary Dynamic

Possum Comitatus September 29, 2012 12 Comments

The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.

The 2012 State of Play

The 2012 State of Play

Possum Comitatus February 9, 2012 49 Comments

Australian federal polling trends and election simulations

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Possum Comitatus August 16, 2011 19 Comments

Australian polling trends for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor’s worst month in government

Possum Comitatus July 2, 2011 24 Comments

Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide state level breakdowns. However, before we do, it’s worth updating our Pollytrend measures as the month of June turned out to be […]

New Trends and Gender Shifts

New Trends and Gender Shifts

Possum Comitatus June 5, 2011 15 Comments

Plugging all the new polling data of late into our trend system, we find that the medium term deterioration in the Labor government’s two party preferred vote has stabilised out around the 46% mark over the last 6 weeks. A lot of day to day stuff came and went, from budgets to boat people, from […]

First Election Simulation for 2011

First Election Simulation for 2011

Possum Comitatus April 1, 2011 21 Comments

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]

Crashes and Rebounds

Crashes and Rebounds

Possum Comitatus March 22, 2011 18 Comments

Time for a polling trends update. First up, the broad sweep. Plugging all the latest polling data fit to print into our system, this is how the two party preferred Pollytrend has changed. We see a relatively sharp downturn for the government starting in late February, bottoming out around the second week of March, before […]

The trends for February’s ends

The trends for February’s ends

Possum Comitatus February 25, 2011 18 Comments

Now that a Morgan phone poll has been released, we have a complete set of polls making up a single polling cycle for the first time this year.  Since some of these buggers have spent a fair bit of time in the festive season wilderness, it’s probably worth taking a look at how they’ve all […]

The Trends Are Back.

The Trends Are Back.

Possum Comitatus February 12, 2011 31 Comments

“The time has come”, the Walrus said, “to talk of many things” – but we’ll start with our new polling trend measures. You may remember that last term we had two trend measures – the all pollster trend (which was an aggregation of the results of every pollster) and our phone pollster trend (which did […]

A comprehensive look at what we think of our health system

A comprehensive look at what we think of our health system

Possum Comitatus December 21, 2010 32 Comments

Last month, the Menzies Centre for Health Policy released a health survey where they teamed up with The Nous Group to measure Australian perceptions of our health system. It was a telephone poll with a sample of 1201, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3% mark. A fairly broad range of questions […]