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election simulation

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The 2012 State of Play

The 2012 State of Play

Possum ComitatusFeb 9, 201249 Comments

Australian federal polling trends and election simulations

Wipeout

Wipeout

Possum ComitatusSep 28, 201135 Comments

Australian federal election simulations and polling trends

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor's worst month in government

Pollytrend, Election Sims and Labor's worst month in government

Possum ComitatusJul 2, 201124 Comments

Being the end of June, it’s time to crank up the stats and run our quarterly election simulations based on polling aggregates of the last 3 months from all the pollsters that provide

First Election Simulation for 2011

First Election Simulation for 2011

Possum ComitatusApr 1, 201121 Comments

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our firs

New Election Simulation.

New Election Simulation.

Possum ComitatusAug 18, 201043 Comments

With today’s combined two week Newspoll breakdown released over at The Oz, we can aggregate the results with the last two Nielsens and the

First campaign election simulation

First campaign election simulation

Possum ComitatusAug 4, 201039 Comments

With the Newspoll release today of a slightly smaller than usual demographic breakdown (n=3437 rather than the usual n=5500+), we can combine them up with the last 2 Nielsen polls and r

Nerdy Sunday – Betting Markets Edition

Nerdy Sunday – Betting Markets Edition

Possum ComitatusJul 11, 20104 Comments

This week we saw three betting agencies open up individual seat markets for the federal election. We looked at one of those on Friday (Betfair), so today we’ll take a squiz at the oth

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

Possum ComitatusJun 29, 201034 Comments

Since our last roundup, we've had another Galaxy, a Newspoll and an Essential Report come into the field. The Galaxy was taken on June 25, 1 day after their first poll and showing ident

The electoral reality of Rudd's last days.

The electoral reality of Rudd's last days.

Possum ComitatusJun 28, 201037 Comments

Hidden among the events of Thursday’s spill was Newspoll’s quarterl

Election Simulation - Quarter 1 2010

Election Simulation - Quarter 1 2010

Possum ComitatusApr 9, 20109 Comments

With Newspoll having released its quarterly polling breakdowns, we can now combine them with the Nielsen data for the last three months and  run our election simulation - giving us the

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