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Topic: John Howard
The Primary Dynamic

The Primary Dynamic

The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.

Essential Report – our ignorance on asylum seeker numbers

Essential Report – our ignorance on asylum seeker numbers

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running Coalition down 1 to 40, ALP down 2 to 37, washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor – a one point Labor gain since last week. The Greens are on 12 (up 3) while the broad Others are steady on 10. […]

Howard vs. Rudd at 23 months

Howard vs. Rudd at 23 months

Just a quicky with 3 charts using Newspoll monthly averages –  a  look at Howard vs. Rudd on net satisfaction, preferred PM and the two party preferred over comparative time periods. Rudd is in red, Howard in blue along with their respective axis.

Media, Leadership and the Structural Change of Australian Politics

Media, Leadership and the Structural Change of Australian Politics

This post could also be called “How to explain nearly everything about big P politics in 4 simple charts”. Australian politics, or rather the dynamics of the relationship between the public and the party in government, has been undergoing a significant transformation over the last 25 odd years. In many respects, that is to be […]

The Grey Vote: Ageing and Cohort Succession

The Grey Vote: Ageing and Cohort Succession

This is the name of a new academic paper (still in working form) that Aaron Martin and Dr. Juliet Pietsch are currently writing – and they were extraordinarily kind enough to let us have a little bit of a peek before it gets published. The abstract of the paper lays out the broad contents and […]

Essential Report – The Fickleness of Political Mythology

Essential Report – The Fickleness of Political Mythology

Essential Report comes in this week with the primaries running 47 (down 3) / 35 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 58/42 the same way – a two point drop from the highs of last week. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1918, giving us an […]

Redistributions and the Ouch Factor

Redistributions and the Ouch Factor

One of the more interesting things to come out of the redistribution of the federal electorate boundaries in QLD late last week, was the way the Liberal inner city seat of Ryan became ultra marginal. While some of the Libs have been moaning about getting the rough end of the pineapple here, what happened to […]

Historical Satisfaction Ratings of Opposition Leaders

Historical Satisfaction Ratings of Opposition Leaders

Essential Report will be out later today, apparently with a big bag of questions – so to tie us over until then it might be interesting to have a squiz at net satisfaction ratings of every Leader of the Opposition going back to Howard in the late 80’s. Net satisfaction ratings tell us whether more […]