The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.
This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running Coalition down 1 to 40, ALP down 2 to 37, washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor – a one point Labor gain since last week. The Greens are on 12 (up 3) while the broad Others are steady on 10. […]
Just a quicky with 3 charts using Newspoll monthly averages – a look at Howard vs. Rudd on net satisfaction, preferred PM and the two party preferred over comparative time periods. Rudd is in red, Howard in blue along with their respective axis.
This post could also be called “How to explain nearly everything about big P politics in 4 simple charts”. Australian politics, or rather the dynamics of the relationship between the public and the party in government, has been undergoing a significant transformation over the last 25 odd years. In many respects, that is to be […]
This is the name of a new academic paper (still in working form) that Aaron Martin and Dr. Juliet Pietsch are currently writing – and they were extraordinarily kind enough to let us have a little bit of a peek before it gets published. The abstract of the paper lays out the broad contents and […]
Essential Report comes in this week with the primaries running 47 (down 3) / 35 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 58/42 the same way – a two point drop from the highs of last week. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1918, giving us an […]
One of the more interesting things to come out of the redistribution of the federal electorate boundaries in QLD late last week, was the way the Liberal inner city seat of Ryan became ultra marginal. While some of the Libs have been moaning about getting the rough end of the pineapple here, what happened to […]
Essential Report will be out later today, apparently with a big bag of questions – so to tie us over until then it might be interesting to have a squiz at net satisfaction ratings of every Leader of the Opposition going back to Howard in the late 80’s. Net satisfaction ratings tell us whether more […]