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Topic: julia gillard
The Primary Dynamic

The Primary Dynamic

The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.

Wipeout

Wipeout

Australian federal election simulations and polling trends

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Australian polling trends for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens

Carbon Price opinion – the starting gates

Carbon Price opinion – the starting gates

Over the next 12 months, we’ll have more polls on pricing carbon than we can poke a stick at – some more valuable than others –  so it’s probably worth taking a squiz at where public views of carbon pricing sit at the starting gates of what will probably be a bit of a rollercoaster […]

The Trends Are Back.

The Trends Are Back.

“The time has come”, the Walrus said, “to talk of many things” – but we’ll start with our new polling trend measures. You may remember that last term we had two trend measures – the all pollster trend (which was an aggregation of the results of every pollster) and our phone pollster trend (which did […]

How the mighty fell

How the mighty fell

One of the more astonishing things about the federal election result is how the ALP managed to destroy such an enormous amount of public goodwill over such a relatively small time frame. To really highlight the drama of it all, it’s worth looking at a couple of charts. Firstly, let’s take every two party preferred […]

Let the Great Unhinging begin

Let the Great Unhinging begin

With two country independents backing Gillard, the Labor party will now pass the only threshold needed in Australia to form government – a majority on the floor of House. There is no other test, there is no other requisite, there is no other qualification needed to control the Treasury benches. But this constitutional reality will […]

Rumble in the Rissole

Rumble in the Rissole

Last night saw a joint Sky News/News Ltd tabloid “town hall” style political shindig at the Rooty Hill RSL Club –  where Abbott and Gillard stated their case for election and answered questions from the floor. There was a lot of debate about the bias or otherwise of the audience, where they appeared much tougher […]

Essential and the whiff of 2004.

Essential and the whiff of 2004.

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 42/41 to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor. That’s a three point gain to the Coalition and a 1 point gain to Labor on the primaries over the last week, making for a Greens vote declining from 13 […]

Newspoll and Galaxy Monday

Newspoll and Galaxy Monday

Newspoll (via The Oz) and Galaxy (via the News Ltd tabloids) come in today with identical primaries running 42/38 to the Coalition – but with Newspoll having the ALP leading on the two party preferred by 52/48 while Galaxy has it at 51/49 – suggesting that both pollsters got very close to the 51.5 mark […]