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Topic: Kevin Rudd
The Primary Dynamic

The Primary Dynamic

The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.

Nielsen, Workchoices and the Rudd Effect

Nielsen, Workchoices and the Rudd Effect

Nielsen comes in today via the Fairfax broadsheets with the primaries running 42 (up 3)/ 41 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a 2 point gain to Labor since July 8-10 when the last Nielsen was taken. The Greens are down 1 to 12 […]

Galaxy, trust and vote barriers

Galaxy, trust and vote barriers

Last night on Channel Nine news, a Galaxy poll was published that was supposed to be a “bombshell”. It was taken over the period July 17/18, making it the first full post-election announcement poll (today’s Newspoll on the other hand, which we looked at here, would only be 50-65 odd percent taken after the election […]

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

The Post Spill Polling Roundup

Since our last roundup, we’ve had another Galaxy, a Newspoll and an Essential Report come into the field. The Galaxy was taken on June 25, 1 day after their first poll and showing identical results for the major parties, and a 1 point gain to the Greens at the expense of a 1 point drop […]

The electoral reality of Rudd’s last days.

The electoral reality of Rudd’s last days.

Hidden among the events of Thursday’s spill was Newspoll’s quarterly release of their polling demographic breakdowns between April and June in The Oz. In what can only be described as very convenient timing, this allows us to pool these Newspoll results with the Nieslen results over the same period (plus one  unpublished phone poll I […]

Spill

Spill

What a very odd 24 hours. Today’s Newspoll quarterly shows that the ALP would have won around 81 seats to 66 were an election held during the last three months – a period where Labor polled their lowest in Newspoll in 4 years. Kevin Rudd is now toast, as the ALP has no choice but […]

Essential Report – Leaders Leaders Leaders Edition

Essential Report – Leaders Leaders Leaders Edition

This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries showing the Coalition down 1 to 40, the ALP up 3 to 38, the Greens down 3 to 11 and the broad “Others” up 1 to 10. This washes out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor, a one point gain to the red […]

Nielsen gives Abbott best poll ever.

Nielsen gives Abbott best poll ever.

This month’s Nielsen via Fairfax comes off a sample of 1400 – giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark. Rather than go through the usual spiel on the vote estimates, here’s what they look like to the nearest decimal place, how the vote estimates changed over the last month, including preference […]

Newspoll Greenades

Newspoll Greenades

This fortnight’s Newspoll comes in via The Oz with the primaries running 41 (down 2) / 35 (down 2) to the Coalition. However, due to a rather large polling Greenade, that all washes out into a two party preferred of 51/49 to Labor – a one point increase to the ALP since last Newspoll. The […]

Leadership Polling – a comprehensive rundown

Leadership Polling – a comprehensive rundown

Yesterday both Galaxy and Newspoll released polling on leadership ratings of a Rudd/Gillard head-to-head, while Morgan asked the same with a phone poll late last week. Looking at the three questions, Galaxy asked: Which of the two Labor politicians, Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard, do you believe would be the best choice to be leader […]