How two pollsters showing identical results can deliver two completely different accounts of voter behaviour - why timeliness matters if you want to avoid bad analysis
The extraordinary growth in the relationship between perceptions of the Prime Minister and the electoral fortunes of the government they lead. A statistical analysis of our new primary dynamic.
Now that a Morgan phone poll has been released, we have a complete set of polls making up a single polling cycle for the first time this year. Since some of these buggers have spent a fair bit of time in the festive season wilderness, it’s probably worth taking a look at how they’ve all […]
One of the more astonishing things about the federal election result is how the ALP managed to destroy such an enormous amount of public goodwill over such a relatively small time frame. To really highlight the drama of it all, it’s worth looking at a couple of charts. Firstly, let’s take every two party preferred […]
There’s a Victorian state Newspoll out this morning via The Oz that has the Coalition leading the ALP on the primary vote by 40/35, but with the two party preferred running 52/48 the other way. This comes about because the Greens vote is sitting on a high of 19. That’s all good and well, but […]
Out of today’s Fairfax press comes the results of the JWS Research poll (full results here) we’ve all been hearing so much about. With a total sample size of 28,000, (no you didn’t read that wrong, twenty eight thousand!) some of you folks would have either been polled yourself last Saturday and Sunday, or know […]
Today’s Newspoll via The Oz shows little movement, running from a sample of 1693 and giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.4% mark. The vote estimates look like this: You’ll notice that the Coalition dropped a point and the Greens gained one on the primaries, yet the two party preferred result showing […]
Recovering from tech failure yesterday, we have a basket of new polls including a Nielsen, a Morgan phone poll and two sets of marginal seat polling – one from Galaxy and one from Newspoll. First up, the all pollster chart: Every pollster has shown an increase for Labor between late July and the first two […]