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Topic: pollytrend
The State of Play for June

The State of Play for June

Australian federal polling trends for June

Trend Updates for November

Trend Updates for November

Latest Australian political polling trends for October

Wipeout

Wipeout

Australian federal election simulations and polling trends

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Polling trends – Spring Session Edition

Australian polling trends for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens

First Election Simulation for 2011

First Election Simulation for 2011

With the Newspoll quarterly release this week, we now have enough data to aggregate the pollsters together, break the aggregated sample down into state based components and run our first election simulation for 2011. Before we start though, it’s worth running though an updated Pollytrend to show how the polls have moved over the January […]

The trends for February’s ends

The trends for February’s ends

Now that a Morgan phone poll has been released, we have a complete set of polls making up a single polling cycle for the first time this year.  Since some of these buggers have spent a fair bit of time in the festive season wilderness, it’s probably worth taking a look at how they’ve all […]

The Trends Are Back.

The Trends Are Back.

“The time has come”, the Walrus said, “to talk of many things” – but we’ll start with our new polling trend measures. You may remember that last term we had two trend measures – the all pollster trend (which was an aggregation of the results of every pollster) and our phone pollster trend (which did […]

Nielsen – Thump

Nielsen – Thump

Today brings about a Nielsen that has the tragics spinning with the Coalition hitting the lead on a two party preferred split of 52/48. The poll came from a sample of 1356, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.7% mark. The primary votes broken down into gender and geography as well as […]

Newspoll and Galaxy -polls vs trends

Newspoll and Galaxy -polls vs trends

Two big polls out today – a Galaxy via the News Ltd tabloids and a Newspoll via The Oz. The top line info on the vote estimates come in like this I’m not sure if this Galaxy was taken over the 24th and the 25th, or just the 25th – so we’ll leave a little […]

Campaign Trend Estimates – the starting blocks

Campaign Trend Estimates – the starting blocks

The last week gave us a big bag full of polls containing a substantial amount of variation in the results – so today we’ll update our Pollytrend estimates to try and look through that noise to pick up any underlying movements in the true value of public opinion, and also giving us an estimate of […]