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Topic: primary vote
New Trends and Gender Shifts

New Trends and Gender Shifts

Plugging all the new polling data of late into our trend system, we find that the medium term deterioration in the Labor government’s two party preferred vote has stabilised out around the 46% mark over the last 6 weeks. A lot of day to day stuff came and went, from budgets to boat people, from […]

Campaign Trend Estimates – the starting blocks

Campaign Trend Estimates – the starting blocks

The last week gave us a big bag full of polls containing a substantial amount of variation in the results – so today we’ll update our Pollytrend estimates to try and look through that noise to pick up any underlying movements in the true value of public opinion, and also giving us an estimate of […]

Galaxy, deserving to win and incumbency.

Galaxy, deserving to win and incumbency.

The first full day of the campaign brings us a Galaxy poll (via the News Ltd tabloids) that was taken on Friday night before the election announcement. The poll had a sample of 800, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.5% mark. The only change in the voting estimates since the last […]

Newspoll – Labor’s best all year

Newspoll – Labor’s best all year

Newspoll comes in this fortnight via The Oz with the primaries running 43 (up 4)/ 38 (down 3) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a 4 point gain to the ALP. The Greens are on 12 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are on 7 (down […]

Morgan Polls and Turning Points

Morgan Polls and Turning Points

This week’s Morgan face-to-face poll comes in with the primaries running 44.5 (down 0.5)/ 37 (down 1.5) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56.5/43.5 the same way – a one point gain to Labor since the last poll. The Greens are on 11 (up 2.5) while the broad “Others” are on […]

Newspoll Tuesday – Groundhog Day Edition

Newspoll Tuesday – Groundhog Day Edition

In contrast to yesterday’s Essential Report which was Labor’s best poll result of the year, comes today’s Newspoll via The Oz which is probably Labor’s worst result. The primaries come on 41 (steady)/ 39 (down 1) to the Coalition, washing into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor – unchanged from last fortnight. The […]

Newspoll Tuesday

Newspoll Tuesday

Newspoll Tuesday comes in via The Oz with the primaries running 39 (down 1) /40 (down 1) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 to Labor – a one point gain to Labor since the last Newspoll. The Greens are on 12 (steady), while the broad “Others” are sitting on […]

The Coalition and Women Voters

The Coalition and Women Voters

We often hear about how Tony Abbott has a problem with women voters (or rather, how women voters have a problem with Tony Abbott), which even if true, isn’t a particularly new phenomenon to the post-Howard Coalition. Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull both experienced polling problems with women voters at various times during their leadership. […]

Swing States

Swing States

Following on from our look at how the capital city vote has been changing, we may as well take a bit of a squiz at how the state-by-state composition of that headline vote has been changing as well. Even though the headline primary and two party preferred numbers appear to be pretty static at the […]

The Liberal Party Disaster in the Capital Cities

The Liberal Party Disaster in the Capital Cities

Think back over the last two years of the Rudd government and keep in your thought orbit the never ending commentaries of Labor facing some “political crisis” or  “increased pressure” or dangerous “political test” which was inevitably going to end in failure. Think back on the multitude of dour proclamations by the usual suspects – […]