March 21, 2009
At the dedicated venue – all the polls and action of election day, updated all day. Next week we get back to our usual business.
March 19, 2009 3
Over at Crikey’s dedicated Qld Election blog, I’ve whacked a post up that looks at 2006 vs 2009 campaign polling results from Newspoll and Galaxy and the nature of the voteshift.
March 10, 2009
You can read all about it over at the dedicated Qld Election blog.
February 28, 2009
It’s been a bit of a sparse week for federal election data – but fear not, the Qld Election has produced enough action to keep one busy. I was hoping to do far more than I’ve done here at Pollytics this week, but the Qld election blog has taken more time than I though it […]
February 26, 2009
The details can be seen over at our Qld election blog:
February 24, 2009 17
Since we now have an up to date poll for the Qld election, albeit one with a relatively small sample size, we can start to do some monte carlo simulations to work out the probabilities of a given party gaining a given number of seats were that poll to come true on election day. So […]
February 24, 2009 2
Day 1 of the campaign and we have our first poll – but be warned, the most important thing about this poll is the sample size: 752 people giving us an MoE of 3.6%. This compares to the usual Qld Newspolls that have samples of 1100 plus. The smaller the sample size, the larger the […]
February 23, 2009 15
The LNP needs 21 seats (all things being equal) to form government. The swings for seats look like this (using Antony’s redistribution estimates) for the practical middle 50 seats thereabouts. (apologies for anyone that saw the first chart and had a bad case of WTF! – my labels had become a bit denecessaried) So folks, […]
February 23, 2009 7
Rule Number 1: “Today will be the day an election is called for Qld!” Rule Number 2: “If it’s not, then come tomorrow see Rule Number 1” – repeat as necessary. UPDATE: An election has been called for March 21st. — We haven’t had any polling out of Qld since December, but it’s probably worth […]
January 15, 2009 10
With Qld being the next stop for the electoral campaign circus, that fanciful beast The Liberal National Party is off to the same start we’ve all seen so many times before north of the Rio Tweed – which just goes to show that regardless of the money pissed up the wall on trying to rebrand […]