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Tag archives: QLD Election

Qld Election Live

Possum Comitatus March 21, 2009

At the dedicated venue – all the polls and action of election day, updated all day. Next week we get back to our usual business.

Qld Polling Comparisons

Possum Comitatus March 19, 2009 3 Comments

Over at Crikey’s dedicated Qld Election blog, I’ve whacked a post up that looks at 2006 vs 2009 campaign polling results from Newspoll and Galaxy and the nature of the voteshift.

LNPs 1st Newspoll Lead

LNPs 1st Newspoll Lead

Possum Comitatus March 10, 2009

You can read all about it over at the dedicated Qld Election blog.

Qld Election Update.

Possum Comitatus February 28, 2009

It’s been a bit of a sparse week for federal election data – but fear not, the Qld Election has produced enough action to keep one busy. I was hoping to do far more than I’ve done here at Pollytics this week, but the Qld election blog has taken more time than I though it […]

Galaxy Qld – Tie.

Possum Comitatus February 26, 2009

The details can be seen over at our Qld election blog:

First Qld Election Simulation

First Qld Election Simulation

Possum Comitatus February 24, 2009 17 Comments

Since we now have an up to date poll for the Qld election, albeit one with a relatively small sample size, we can start to do some monte carlo simulations to work out the probabilities of a given party gaining a given number of seats were that poll to come true on election day. So […]

Newspoll Tuesday – Qld Edition

Newspoll Tuesday – Qld Edition

Possum Comitatus February 24, 2009 2 Comments

Day 1 of the campaign and we have our first poll – but be warned, the most important thing about this poll is the sample size: 752 people giving us an MoE of 3.6%. This compares to the usual Qld Newspolls that have samples of 1100 plus. The smaller the sample size, the larger the […]

QLD Election March 21

QLD Election March 21

Possum Comitatus February 23, 2009 15 Comments

The LNP needs 21 seats (all things being equal) to form government. The swings for seats look like this (using Antony’s redistribution estimates) for the practical middle 50 seats thereabouts. (apologies for anyone that saw the first chart and had a bad case of WTF! – my labels had become a bit denecessaried) So folks, […]

Qld Election Watch: Day 122

Qld Election Watch: Day 122

Possum Comitatus February 23, 2009 7 Comments

Rule Number 1: “Today will be the day an election is called for Qld!” Rule Number 2: “If it’s not, then come tomorrow see Rule Number 1” – repeat as necessary. UPDATE: An election has been called for March 21st. — We haven’t had any polling out of Qld since December, but it’s probably worth […]

How to Lose an Election in 27 Easy Steps

Possum Comitatus January 15, 2009 10 Comments

With Qld being the next stop for the electoral campaign circus, that fanciful beast The Liberal National Party is off to the same start we’ve all seen so many times before north of the Rio Tweed – which just goes to show that regardless of the money pissed up the wall on trying to rebrand […]