So suppose Labor does take the plunge and sack another Prime Minister: who would the party turn to? Yesterday morning’s Nielsen poll puts a strong case for Kevin Rudd’s return but the betting markets on the event don’t have him favourite. Some bookmakers have Simon Crean as the most likely choice while others opt for Stephen Smith or Bill Shorten.

One thing on which there is agreement is that there is a greater chance that Julia Gillard will not be the Labor Prime Minister at the time of the next election than that she will be. Distilled own into the Crikey Indicator the probabilities are:

As to who will emerge from the next election as the government:

Meanwhile, over the Tasman, the incumbent Nationals are strongly favoured to be returned.

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